KY-06

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES

PA-01: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
NE-02: Tossup to Lean Republican
NY-25: Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat

New Map:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/aleJJKk

@Pielover19 KY-06 safe democrat right

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:

VA-05 Safe Republican - Lean Republican

New Map:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/aleJJKk

From Safe to Lean

That's pretty disastrous

Skipped solid and likely <:pinkwojak:422439817528344577>

Safe and solid are the same.

no

I disagree

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/3lvd8pN

In my ratings system they are.

oh

@Pielover19 VA-02 is too red

I've seen polls indicting that the R would win by a 2-3 point margin

I was going to say

and the Democrat Governor won the district

This map seems way to generous too Republicans

Give me those polls.

Zak, tell me which districts seem too generous to R's.

@Pielover19 okay, 6 points, but whatever. it's still close

I don't think the Democrats have any chance of winning currently.

why did Northam win Virginia Beach then?

Taylor is different than Gillespie.

And he is very popular.

Taylor, that is. He won by a huge margin in 2016.

Well, he certainly isn't polling that big of a margin

for someone that popular

@Pielover19 The Democrat is polling ahead of my incumbent representative and my district is only R+3 and went for CLinton

furthermore is went for Kamala harris which is a total progressive hard core

I think lean republican is arguably generous

Using one poll with a probably abysmal sample size isn't a good rule of thumb to go by.

If the trend continues with future polls of this district, I will change the rating.

The only way you can consider it lean is because she won in 2016 even through Trump lost

fair enough