excellent

very productive discussion

That's what I said before...

rage....

2?

hmmm...

.8ball Will Dan Donovan win the primary?

BTFO

Eh, still a chance.

I'd say the incumbency advantage extends to 6 years at most

Fair enough.

But just because there's a possibility that two Republicans could be in some California districts doesn't mean I should immediately put them into tossup territory.

Like CA-49 and 33, I believe.

I don't think my district even EXISTED back then

My city was part of the 43rd district

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 I'll be happy when your district is #2 or something

Join the american islamic peoples advertisement coalition, dedicated to spreading islam

the founder's name is ملك كيكي

he is dedicated at his job

25 is likely safe, 45 likely safe, 48 likely safe, 49 toss-up, 10 toss-up, 21 likely safe, 39 lean red. - 7 GOP seats in CA the Democrats are aiming for. Very good results from JUST the results thus far and the primary results alone. At the very most, the Democrats will take 2-3 seats. Certainly not the seven they aimed for. At the very least, they'll get zero seats. If these results are predictive, Democrats have a significantly harder battle to fight in November.

RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:

NJ-2: Tossup to Lean Democrat
NJ-5: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
CA-10: Lean Democrat to Tossup
CA-21: Lean Republican to Likely Republican
CA-39: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
NM-2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

New Map:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/XpAA8op

Reasonings:
The New Jersey districts were on the border between the two rankings, and the primary results in New Jersey just barely pushed them over.
California was an excellent part of Tuesday. With Valadao taking over 60% of the vote in the primary, his district is unlikely to flip. Denham also performed extremely well, pushing his to tossup, and the strange voting patterns of California 39 makes this less of a safe Democratic pickup.

New Mexico was one I debated myself with, but since the Democrats did get more primary votes and shifting demographics, the Republicans have lost a bit of their edge in this district.

NJ district 5 (mine) can actually go red.

I've been across the entire region and I've seen much more McCann signs then gottheimer signs.

And everybody I've talked to is voting McCann

Definitely get the message out there

It's a district which does have an R PVI

I only think gottheimer won because scott garret was represenative for like 12 years

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/12/organizing-for-action-2018-plan-640212

Here is the full list of districts OFA is targeting:

AZ-02
CA-04
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
IA-01
IL-06
KS-03
MN-02
MN-03
MO-02
NC-09
NC-13
NJ-11
NY-11
PA-01
PA-06
PA-07
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
WI-01

Time for an analysis

AZ-02: Flipping already

CA-04: Nope

WI-01 is Paul Ryan's seat

I don't think that will flip