Message from @๐Boo-ton๐
Discord ID: 453368988374794242
And, Grimm was a former Representative.
@GermanEastAfrica Um, mind your business sweetie
From this district.
He has incumbent advantage.
It'll still be an open seat
Pie, whatโs happening
An open seat is an open seat
Come on, Pie!
Button wants me to change my ratings based on one poll that says the former representative would oust the current one.
He was last in office in 1997!
No one even remembers him
The Primary voters sure do.
That so called "incumbency" is irrelevant in this case
there is a range of years for it
I'll change it if he wins the primary.
excellent
very productive discussion
That's what I said before...
rage....
2?
.8ball Will Dan Donovan win the primary?
BTFO
Eh, still a chance.
I'd say the incumbency advantage extends to 6 years at most
Fair enough.
But just because there's a possibility that two Republicans could be in some California districts doesn't mean I should immediately put them into tossup territory.
Like CA-49 and 33, I believe.
I don't think my district even EXISTED back then
My city was part of the 43rd district
@๐Boo-ton๐ I'll be happy when your district is #2 or something
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25 is likely safe, 45 likely safe, 48 likely safe, 49 toss-up, 10 toss-up, 21 likely safe, 39 lean red. - 7 GOP seats in CA the Democrats are aiming for. Very good results from JUST the results thus far and the primary results alone. At the very most, the Democrats will take 2-3 seats. Certainly not the seven they aimed for. At the very least, they'll get zero seats. If these results are predictive, Democrats have a significantly harder battle to fight in November.
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES:
NJ-2: Tossup to Lean Democrat
NJ-5: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
CA-10: Lean Democrat to Tossup
CA-21: Lean Republican to Likely Republican
CA-39: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
NM-2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
New Map:
Reasonings:
The New Jersey districts were on the border between the two rankings, and the primary results in New Jersey just barely pushed them over.
California was an excellent part of Tuesday. With Valadao taking over 60% of the vote in the primary, his district is unlikely to flip. Denham also performed extremely well, pushing his to tossup, and the strange voting patterns of California 39 makes this less of a safe Democratic pickup.