Message from @Nuke
Discord ID: 485491206340608000
hold up
is this like the trafalgar poll in indiana where boomers are like 90% dem or some shit?
that's a fucking crazy number
if that's the only discrepancy, then maybe it's a valid poll, but we'll definitely need more polling info before we decide anything
Geez that's some upset
Ok
Marini, you're like 16 right?
Do you have the ability to volunteer for Mike's campaign?
This poll seems trash.
Let's see
yeah, until further polling comes, I suggest keeping this at likely dem at most
I really don't think that this is very unbelievable with the youth part.
Small sample
but not unusually small for a US Representative race
Miller has unusually strong support among Hispanics, according to this poll, but it's actually pretty comparable to what Bush got in 2004; congressional races have these sorts of anomalies fairly frequently in Florida and Texas. Miller wins the male vote with a plurality, and loses the female vote by eight points. He wins "other"--a group consisting of only 18 persons--with 50%. This is likely due to the incredibly small "other" population. The 18 to 29 age bracket suffers from a similar issue, with only 16 persons answering. So these two look like the Mason-Dixon "60% of Greens voting David Duke" thing.
It isn't really weird or bad.
Just not really good enough.
Oh okay, NOW it makes sense
so it's a legit poll then, just suffers from low sample size among youth
Yep. Also, oddly Miller is losing to the Democrat among the 50-69 group.
I just noticed the real issue with this poll when I accidentally hit the tab again
Their sample is like 75% white.
The district is only like 50% white.
Well do whites turn out 75% relative to other ethnic groups?
Unsure. It's plausible.
So district's like 60% white, 25% hispanic, 10% black, 5% asian. given that hispanics and asians have very low turnout, and blacks vote at a bit of a slightly lower rate than whites (probably will be similar turnout this year due to Gillum) then I don't think it's absurd to say that the poll represents the likely voters
yeah not hard to imagine that whites would be 75% of likely voters
the poll appears to check out
Doesn't seem like there's a age restriction
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES
PA-08: Tossup to Tilt Democrat
CT-05: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
@Pielover19 damn
PA-08
MI-11: Tilt Democrat to Lean Democrat.
@Pielover19 This makes me feel better than the Senate map.
@Pielover19 why change PA-08