but Iowa completely blue? lmao you gotta stop spending too much time on US Election Atlas @Yellowhammer
It’s very unlikely, but more likely than all red @Julien Blanc
King is awesome he should run for senate
@Pielover19 a while back we made a 'best case scenario' for the House
what's your new 'best case scenario'
Wait a minute, lemme craft it up.
http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/vKwk4wK
@Julien Blanc
Mediocre.
http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/gKZjMGK
This is the real BEST CASE SCENARIO
Best case in virtually every district
>Tfw trying to make a new Kavanaugh Coattail prediction but 270ToWin's share button is broken
Just take a screenshot I guess
https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/1047942756860145664
Let’s hope this is a real trend and that it sticks!
thing with IBD/TIPP is that they had it as a tie, then just a short while later they jumped it up to D+11
Doesn’t seem that reliable in that case
If that IBD/TIPP poll translated to the results in the midterms, we would get about 237 house seats, or in other words, a net gain of 2 seats.
Highly improbable, but if that were to happen, there would be a shitshow beyond comprehension from the dems.
They would start getting very violent
I would imagine. Trump would retain the margin in the House that's been passing legislation pretty reliably and he'll have a larger margin to work with in the Senate to get legislation passed
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls
It'd be like clockwork
on August 2, IBD/TIPP had it as a tie, but then had it at D+11 on August 30
This is certainly an outlier which is why I say it's improbable
IBD/TIPP isn’t very reliable, so I’m not going to read to much into this unless we get some corroboration from other polls
It's also the most recent poll, so we'll see
I concur
If we retain our margin in the House, they would explode
It would also be historic
A major sign the Democratic Party is on it’s last legs
I see IBD/TIPP as one of the most left-wing reliable polls.
They were pretty close with Trump but if you looked into it they had some sneaky methodology, which patently favored the Democrats.
They weight their results by modifying them to favor the left.
D+11 might be because they had a larger pro-D weighting than usual.
The kavanaugh circus has resulted in a national ~+5% gain for the Republicans. I truly hope that the left gets violent.
And this came at a perfect time too
@Zeno Of Citium they already have behaved in a similar fashion
hear about kosco?
Because its early voting season
