@Nuke What do you think the electoral map would look like if it was Michelle Obama vs Trump in 2020

imagine high turnout in negroid-states

women would vote for Michelle

Yeah unless she manages to become as unlikable to the public as Hillary did

one of Hillary's biggest disadvantages was that she was a white woman

blacks didn't show up for her

Win New York and Minnesota, lose Texas and maybe Arizona, ultimately this

Roughly

a Republican isn't winning NY

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 a Republican can definitely win NY lol

I live here

it's a +20 democrat state

so

It really hinges on Upstate.

unless nobody in long island votes, it's not going blue

@Nuke Upstate, Staten Island, Suffolk County are the red areas

But even NYC usually has Staten Island go red when a Republican is winning nationwide.

Suffolk too

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Long Island is more red than NYC, what do you mean

you would need to see record turnout in Staten Island and Upstate,

and elections are determined by Manhattan, Kings, Queens, and the Bronx

literally nowhere elese matters

And you'll need to flip left-wing NYC suburbs

so, the pathway to winning New York State for a Republican is

-High turnout in Staten Island, Suffolk County, the red areas of Nassau County (maybe deporting MS-13 might go a long way there), the red areas of Upstate (there are some blue splotches like college towns and small cities)

-Winning moderates and independents in NYC

There are lots of Trump supporters in NYC who didn't bother voting in 2016

because they thought it was a lost cause

if you get those people to turn out as well, we have a fighting chance for NY in 2020

I noticed that.

there are a lot of Democrats in 2016 who didn't vote because they thought Hillary had it in the bag

If I recall correctly, the Trump campaign DOES THINK New York is IN PLAY in 2020

they'll show up in 2020

I can't remember where I read it though

There's a lot of Trump supporters in the backgrounds of NYC news reporting.

And yeah, Trump even campaigned there in 2016

Democrats mocked him for it but Obama campaigned in Louisiana; what's the difference?

Louisiana is like the opposite of NYC.

@Nuke @Deleted User fg. 1

We've got 3 left-wing, black-majority cities.

And the rest of Louisiana is almost 100% Republican.

@Nuke Trump campaigned in NYC? I know he held rallies in Buffalo and other such places