Is that a good size sample?

I honestly don't trust polls at all anymore. Virginia said dem would win by 3, (won by 11). Alabama said Moore would win, (except Fox said he'd lose by 10), and also the entire 2016 election.

I think this is the media just trying to energize left wing voters.

>yfw this poll energizes even more Saccone voters out on Tuesday

They told us Texas Primary would be a blow up for democrats because of muh early voting, and it wasn't.

Monmouth University might have an agenda

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

they said PA was Clinton+4

on November 1

lol

Did anyone read that article I posted? I really feel that if that analysis was correct then Lamb winning is nearly impossible. It would have to be a massive blowout

I'll check it

In class

Anyone check the weather for the areas *under* Pittsburgh?

"The Monmouth poll was conducted March 8-11 — with most of the interviews coming before Trump’s rally last Saturday night in the district. But the poll indicates Trump’s backing of Saccone may be a wash for the Republican nominee."

hmm

"“Voters are divided on the potential impact of tariffs. It doesn’t seem that the president’s gambit paid off in this race if that was his intent,” said Murray. Still, he noted that the poll was taken largely before the rally “and we don’t have a clear picture of what impact that might“ have."

hmmmmm

hmmmm

good find

"we don't have a clear picture of what impact that (the rally) might have".

well, that's pretty significant

That means if Saccone wins by 1,

Then Trumps rally boosted him up by 8

@Den @FLanon @🎃Boo-ton🎃 That rally had wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than 372 people

also, whoa

look

42% Allegheny County
24% Washington/Greene County
34% Westmoreland County

are those proper proportions @Den ?

I think 372 is a pretty small polling sample, isn't it?

Depends

depends on how accurate the sample represents the district

From Nate Silver "It encompasses parts of four counties: Allegheny (home to 43 percent of the district’s voters, based on 2016 presidential results), Westmoreland (33 percent), Washington (22 percent) and Greene (2 percent)."

hmm

BUT the Parts of Allegheny are very different. Like around Mount Lebanon is probably like 70% Dem and parts of Southern Allegheny are probably 70% Republican. So who knows where they took the samples

Fucking Union Voters though

We're definitely going to have to do something about RTW soon

I don't know. It just seems mathematically impossible to me.

I mean the district isn't even very elastic