I think DeSantis is more likely to win, but I'm not going to Hillary Effect it

Won't Gillum turn out people who don't normally vote in midterm elections

like Black voters

Yeah, he's a fucking idiot who wants to abolish ICE, wants to do medicare for all and a medicaid expansion *at the same time*, is under FBI investidation, and thinks a tax increase is a tax cut for corporations

And that's the flip side of it and why I'm not going to be arrogant, those black voters will have a higher turnout

One of the reasons Trump won states like FL was because Black turnout was way down

Yes, that's right

This was a state that Clinton did win in the dem primaries by double digits, not sure how a Sanders guy will fare here

Hopefully the fact he's an open socialist alienates the Cuban voters

we should assume that Gillum will turn out high numbers of minority and youth voters - so, we have to take away as many moderates away from him as possible.

assume the best case scenario for the opposition, and work accordingly

The cuban voters will definitelt not be thrilled by that

now, it could be that Gillum won't turn out as many minorities/youth as he'd like, leading to an even worse defeat than the ones Rick Scott dealt to Alex Sink in 2010 and Charlie Crist in 2014

They're probably not going to be like 30+ for DeSantis considering they don't like Trump as much as they like Rick Scott, but I mean they won't vote for Gillum

yeah about that @FLanon

now, FL always seems to be so close that if DeSantis screws it up, it could lead to Gillum winning. It doesn't even require a Roy Moore tier scenario

Does Desantis have anything going for him besides being "The Trump guy" @FLanon

🆙 | **PunishedAnon leveled up!**

We might find that a sanders black man will be the perfect problem.
The problem with sanders was he lost the black vote because he didn't pander to minorities, but he stole the white vote for being so socialist.

I think there's a chance this socialist black combo will become a formidable opponent because it takes the best of sanders, and simultaneously improves on it.

He's a veteran, that's his other thing

That's one problem with his campaign is it isn't very state-issue oriented

however, FL has been close for

Hillary vs Trump. Hillary was arguably a centrist. Trump was perceived by some as radical, but many of his policy proposals weren't that extreme
Rick Scott vs Charlie Crist. Two moderates.

Obama vs Romney. Two moderates

Rick Scott vs Alex Sink. Two moderates

^so...we've never had a Berniecrat run in FL

If I were him I'd get a plan out there on solving the red tide problem, that's something that a lot of people are going to admire

maybe it wouldn't have been that close if it was, say, Jeb vs Sanders or Trump vs Sanders

I think DeSantis will get the cubans by like 10-15 points

Could be less, could be more

@FLanon do you think FL would still be close if it were Bernie vs Trump

No

we've never had a Bernie type candidate run state wide there

the Democrats have always been milquetoast

By not close, I mean "not within 2 points"

The cubans only voted Trump by like 5 points because Clinton was still a capitalist

With someone like Bernie, that'd go up to like 20 points at the very least imo

yep

@FLanon there's no way it'll be 10 points, I'm betting 8 at the most. Cubans are trending democrat and Trump only carried the By 4.6. So a trump endorsement and trump like character I doubt will improve a lot.

Not with an open socialist

people tend to bash Hillary by proxy

"she lost to Trump, therefore she was a realllyyy bad candidate, so ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT WOULD HAVE WON"

not true