But there is no pro-GOP swing any way you look at it.

Yes exactly

This isn't POSITIVE that a man who won by 30% in 2014 is in a tossup scenario.

Just because the dems are trying harder this year doesn't mean you can just jew out and use presidential numbers

I don't agree that there's a pro-GOP swing

but

@whoisjohngalt brought up valid points

no reason to bash him so harshly

He started it...

He literally began condescending to FLAnon.

Scroll up.

Scold him before you scold these folks.

I wasn't even involved in the convo and I scrolled up.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-1.html

And saw him act like a complete retard unnecessarily.

check this out btw

Wow that is bad

Worrisome but not necessarily reflective of the upcomign results.

@FLanon sample is still small

plus

undecideds

MN-01 was R +14 in a recent poll.

so pinch of salt

This is MN-08

I know.

But it's just an example of an outrageous poll recently in Minnesota.

MN-01 is a pure toss up.

I suppose we'll see

@FLanon read beyond the headline numbers

I think our resources in flipping districts will be well spent in NH

Given how erratic the polls have been, we'll have to wait until they stabilise.

"It’s still early, though. Each candidate’s total could easily be seven points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error."

If they don't, we'll just have to wait until the day of the election.

"The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 12 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate’s vote share. One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself."

"About 15 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for.

If they were to break 4 to 1 in favor of Republicans, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or other voters could change their minds.)"

These tossups are EXTREMELY close.

This is one of the closest midterms in history.

we'd rather it be a Stauber lead, but...

We need to get that turnout drive on the road sooner rather than later if we want to claim we had a strongly positive effect this election.

And this is why I don’t care for polls

Ah, yes, he is summoned.