hmm

Which eliminates incumbent advantage and makes use of the presidential margin more legitimate

it's not impossible for the GOP to lose a district he won by 40 points

Not to mention, in PA-18 in 2016, the incumbent was unopposed. You can't really accurately measure any swing that way.

if manchin wins in WV, are we going to call it a 40%+ swing in favour of the Democrats?

due to 2016 results?

of course not

well, @whoisjohngalt still brings up a point about the Democratic candidate now compared to the Democratic candidate then

And still so, even if the Ds have a better candidate now, it's still a legitimate dem swing

Yes, nobody disagreed there. The race is different.

Because they're trying harder this year very clearly

But there is no pro-GOP swing any way you look at it.

Yes exactly

This isn't POSITIVE that a man who won by 30% in 2014 is in a tossup scenario.

Just because the dems are trying harder this year doesn't mean you can just jew out and use presidential numbers

I don't agree that there's a pro-GOP swing

but

@whoisjohngalt brought up valid points

no reason to bash him so harshly

He started it...

He literally began condescending to FLAnon.

Scroll up.

Scold him before you scold these folks.

I wasn't even involved in the convo and I scrolled up.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-1.html

And saw him act like a complete retard unnecessarily.

check this out btw

Wow that is bad

Worrisome but not necessarily reflective of the upcomign results.

@FLanon sample is still small

plus

undecideds

MN-01 was R +14 in a recent poll.

so pinch of salt

This is MN-08

I know.

But it's just an example of an outrageous poll recently in Minnesota.

MN-01 is a pure toss up.

I suppose we'll see

@FLanon read beyond the headline numbers

I think our resources in flipping districts will be well spent in NH