and then he goes full retard when FLAnon persistently disagrees with him

this is classic "GOP will win 400+ seats in the House" reasoning

Roskam is not viewed by his constituents in the same way they view Trump AT ALL.

he brought up the fact that Roskam was facing a no-name opponent in 2016 who had little money @ThatRightWingFish @[Lex]

definitely makes sense. Not sure why you don't get it

and my grievance was that he used that precedent to justify construing these results as a swing in FAVOUR of the gop

not a swing in favor of the GOP

there is a debate to be had about whether it's better to compare these races to Presidential 2016 results or Congressional 2016 results

He did call it a +8 swing

Which is retardation.

Certainly not in favor of the Republicans

Tell me a pollster which uses this language.

That this is conceivably a swing in favour of the GOP.

well, if you're going to judge swings based on Presidential 2016 results in PA-18, why not this one

the same thing applied in GA-06

you don't judge them based on presidential results

Because the incumbent was out

Pretty simple

you need to use a mixture of data

PA-18 and GA-06 both saw the incumbent no longer in there

hmm

Which eliminates incumbent advantage and makes use of the presidential margin more legitimate

it's not impossible for the GOP to lose a district he won by 40 points

Not to mention, in PA-18 in 2016, the incumbent was unopposed. You can't really accurately measure any swing that way.

if manchin wins in WV, are we going to call it a 40%+ swing in favour of the Democrats?

due to 2016 results?

of course not

well, @whoisjohngalt still brings up a point about the Democratic candidate now compared to the Democratic candidate then

And still so, even if the Ds have a better candidate now, it's still a legitimate dem swing

Yes, nobody disagreed there. The race is different.

Because they're trying harder this year very clearly

But there is no pro-GOP swing any way you look at it.

Yes exactly

This isn't POSITIVE that a man who won by 30% in 2014 is in a tossup scenario.

Just because the dems are trying harder this year doesn't mean you can just jew out and use presidential numbers

I don't agree that there's a pro-GOP swing

but

@whoisjohngalt brought up valid points

no reason to bash him so harshly

He started it...

He literally began condescending to FLAnon.