I've acknowledged that more could die.

Besides, even though thew disease predominantly affects older people, this is not a justification to just take minimal precautions. We don't know if the death stats are truly reflective of reality, and no real idea if other age demographics die from this more than what's being counted. There have been autopsies done on people believed to have died from the flu when in reality it was Covid-19. And if you don't close down schools you're just opening up more avenues for those who are old to get sick from.

But based on the numbers right now, it looks like 1% for a population that was skewed older than the general population for most advanced countries

So we close the world for 18 months?

What other choice do we honestly have? There's more to the virus than death, as it can permanently scar the lungs and debilitate people for weeks or months. Would you rather everyone else remain exposed, get infected, and have at least 10% of the population with lung damage?

I'd dispute that 10%. In any case, though, will there be a world to resume if we shut down like you're proposing? Will we still be ourselves? I'd rather risk my 50 year old life as well as my 52yo wife's and my 20yo and 18yo kids' lives to this bug and still have life to live. My kids have a future to develop. It'll be tragic to see that delayed if they can't keep their studies going.

And for me, I still would like to visit my friends in Germany this autumn and it's looking increasingly likely that I won't get to see Hatsune Miku in concert next month which makes me very, very sad.

We will still absolutely have more or less the same world after the pandemic as we did before as long as we take precautions, and the world isn't going to just completely shut down. Yes it will be inconvenient for many things to slow down and be affected but it needs to be done; if we don't do this, then we will look more like Iran. Also something to keep in mind is that viruses are unstable and are prone to mutations, which Covid-19 has already done at least a few times. We have no idea if it will mutate into a less severe strain or become even deadlier, though the latter seems to be more likely as at some point the virus split into two variants, the deadlier of the two being the more infectious one (and the one the world is dealing with now).

According to Worldometers 10% of confirmed cases are serious, though there's no telling how many aren't known about or recorded (especially in Iran and China).

Funny enough I actually have family in Germany too, and my plans for seeing them also seem absolutely trashed.

One of them may actually have Covid-19 though so, also not great.

I agree about the mutations. And the more widely this spreads, the more chance for new variance. But I think more people may die from the economic recession or even depression that we are courting right now than will die from the SARS-2 virus. Certainly more young lives will be devastated by a destroyed economy than from COVID.

I don't want to see my generation or the one before me destroy the hopes and dreams of the two generations after me because we selfishly trashed the economy trying to protect ourselves from something that it little more than an annoyance to the young.

It should be up to older folks to isolate themselves/ourselves until we get a vaccine. Let the young have their world.

And anyway, the young need to work to pay for the Social Security and Medicare of the old.

We're not doing to older folks any favors if the economy is so trashed that we cannot maintain the structures that care for them.

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, the wife of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for the coronavirus.

In a statement released Thursday night, the prime minister’s office said she was tested at the advice of doctors after a trip to Britain. The test came back positive.

“She is feeling well, is taking all the recommended precautions and her symptoms remain mild,” the statement said.

The prime minister is not showing symptoms, according to his office, but he will self-isolate for 14 days. The statement included a personal message from Sophie Grégoire Trudeau.

“Although I’m experiencing uncomfortable symptoms of the virus, I will be back on my feet soon,” she wrote in the statement.

“We will get through this situation together. Please share the facts and take your health seriously,” she continued. “I send you all my courage and warm thoughts (but only “get better” hugs from afar!).”

Either way there will be some sort of recession. Either the virus spreads throughout the entire population and a large chunk of them suffer in pain and become functionally unable to do their jobs (likely causing an even worse collapse of hospitals and medical systems), or preventative measures are taken and workers are sent home as businesses close or slow for the time being. The second option, while still damaging, the risk of infection is reduced, and it is easier to go back to standard operations once the pandemic ends. There is no easy fix here though.

The Trudeaus are young. Their experience is what I am talking about.

If you're under 50, this bug is no big deal unless you are immunocompromised

It's not no big deal though. Death rates and permanent damage aside, people under 60 have absolutely died from it, perhaps in larger numbers than are being recorded. Numbers which are already at the very least several times higher than the average flu. Ignoring this is dangerous considering just how little information we still have on this virus.

I never said to ignore it

I'm placing myself in the breach daily to treat those who might have it

I'm washing my hand assiduously. Use sanitizer. Take precautions. Both to protect me and my patients. But I'd still fly to Germany and I'd still love to see Miku-chan in concert. I'd risk this bug to do so. And if I get sick, I'll sit it out, recover, and resume my care for people who get it after me.

Again, I am distinguishing between those under 50 and those over 60 or immunocompromised.

You know it spreads through the air, right? Washing hands is good and all but this virus can be transmitted through aerosols, in both the incubation stage and symptomatic stages; it's significantly more infectious than even the flu. And if you risk going to an affected area just to see a concert, you are likely going to catch this and spread it to people without even knowing you're infected then.

It is incredibly unwise to make such a huge risk just to see friends and a concert, as much as it sucks to not do so. Especially given that you seem to be a health professional.

It spreads through droplets, yes. The jury is still out regarding aerosol spread. In any case, this is going to go on for 18 months. What well happen will happen. I'm much more likely to be exposed at work than i am at a concert or in Germany.

Given there will be no vaccine until spring or summer 2021. Again, this is a marathon, not a sprint.

You're likely to be exposed at both is the point though. You also have no real way of knowing who is infected and where until they're symptomatic, which can take a long time.

It definitely spreads through aerosol, this is why the vents of the Diamond Princess were sealed

And likely why how the infection spread as fast as it did

Whatever we do needs to be sustainable for a very long time. We can't live in isolation for that long. Or if we did, we'd be unrecognizable by the end and much less than we are now.

Actually, aerosol has absolutely not been proven.

What has been proven is that this virus does not denature on surfaces as fast as previous coronaviruses.

Generally, predecessors to this bug dies after a few hours on a surface. SARS-2 lasts perhaps 24 hours on cardboard. I was reading a paper that it lasts at least 9 hours on steel. Maybe much longer on plastic.

With such long dwell time on fomites (objects harboring the virus), you can explain spread aboard the ship without necessarily needing to suppose aerosol transmission.

The nursing home in Washington that has yielded so many deaths has also provided us a wealth of data about how this thing survives on surfaces

It is downright scary how durable this virus is. It's still being tested but this dwell data suggests this thing will not "just vanish" during the summer as our dear leader likes to claim on TV.

GG @DrYuriMom, you just advanced to level 8!

It only makes sense for the virus to spread as fast as it does through some measure of aerosol transmission:
"Federally funded tests conducted by scientists from several major institutions indicated that the novel form of coronavirus behind a worldwide outbreak can survive in the air for several hours.

A study awaiting peer review from scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) posted online Wednesday indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air "up to 3 hours post aerosolization," while remaining alive on plastic and other surfaces for up to three days.

"Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 is plausible, as the virus can remain viable in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days," reads the study's abstract."