That number may be lower if we can stretch this out through rational measures. The more we slow this, the more people we can prevent from getting it before we have a vaccine. The key is reducing the 40-50% infected rate.

Banning travel between countries and destroying our economy is not a rational measure, by the way

the Diamond Princess numbers are not perfect though, this is a very isolated case that had access to a number of health professionals. It's very unwise to treat this as some sort of baseline, since populations on the mainland likely won't recieve nearly as much care as the cases on the cruise did.

My numbers are for the US or another western developed country

How exactly is restricting travel from heavily affected countries not a good measure to take?

And they assume we can spred this out a bit for older people

Because almost no one under 60 is dying from this

We need to be isolating those over 60 or those with immunodeficiencies

The rest need to keep working to keep the economy going. It's going to be 18 months before a vaccine. We can't just shut the world down for a year and a half.

This is a marathon, not a sprint

I'm ready to get sick with this thing. Given my vocation, my duty, it's pretty much a given.

But I'm 50 years old and reasonably healthy, I'll be fine.

My parents are 75 and 77 years old. We've pretty much sealed them up. I won't get to see them for potentially a very long time. They've got two caregivers that barely see anyone else. They will be using precautions. It's unfortunate but they have cable and internet and will be quite busy yelling at the TV or computer as Biden and Trump rant at each other.

When they're vaccinated, we can return to some semblance of normality with them

The vast, vast majority of people under 50 have mild symptoms not much different from a cold. Kids don't even generally show symptoms. Why should we be cancelling classes?

You're drawing your numbers from the stats on the Diamond Princess though, which you should know still has about 300 active cases roughly- too many to make a final conclusion now even in spite of the other problems with using this. This assumes that the same amount of care given to those on the cruise ship will be given to everyone nationwide, which isn't going to happen because hospitals will become overburdened and because the U.S.'s response has been slowed. You already see this with South Korea, Italy, Germany, France, and many other countries.

I've acknowledged that more could die.

Besides, even though thew disease predominantly affects older people, this is not a justification to just take minimal precautions. We don't know if the death stats are truly reflective of reality, and no real idea if other age demographics die from this more than what's being counted. There have been autopsies done on people believed to have died from the flu when in reality it was Covid-19. And if you don't close down schools you're just opening up more avenues for those who are old to get sick from.

But based on the numbers right now, it looks like 1% for a population that was skewed older than the general population for most advanced countries

So we close the world for 18 months?

What other choice do we honestly have? There's more to the virus than death, as it can permanently scar the lungs and debilitate people for weeks or months. Would you rather everyone else remain exposed, get infected, and have at least 10% of the population with lung damage?

I'd dispute that 10%. In any case, though, will there be a world to resume if we shut down like you're proposing? Will we still be ourselves? I'd rather risk my 50 year old life as well as my 52yo wife's and my 20yo and 18yo kids' lives to this bug and still have life to live. My kids have a future to develop. It'll be tragic to see that delayed if they can't keep their studies going.

And for me, I still would like to visit my friends in Germany this autumn and it's looking increasingly likely that I won't get to see Hatsune Miku in concert next month which makes me very, very sad.

We will still absolutely have more or less the same world after the pandemic as we did before as long as we take precautions, and the world isn't going to just completely shut down. Yes it will be inconvenient for many things to slow down and be affected but it needs to be done; if we don't do this, then we will look more like Iran. Also something to keep in mind is that viruses are unstable and are prone to mutations, which Covid-19 has already done at least a few times. We have no idea if it will mutate into a less severe strain or become even deadlier, though the latter seems to be more likely as at some point the virus split into two variants, the deadlier of the two being the more infectious one (and the one the world is dealing with now).

According to Worldometers 10% of confirmed cases are serious, though there's no telling how many aren't known about or recorded (especially in Iran and China).

Funny enough I actually have family in Germany too, and my plans for seeing them also seem absolutely trashed.

One of them may actually have Covid-19 though so, also not great.

I agree about the mutations. And the more widely this spreads, the more chance for new variance. But I think more people may die from the economic recession or even depression that we are courting right now than will die from the SARS-2 virus. Certainly more young lives will be devastated by a destroyed economy than from COVID.

I don't want to see my generation or the one before me destroy the hopes and dreams of the two generations after me because we selfishly trashed the economy trying to protect ourselves from something that it little more than an annoyance to the young.

It should be up to older folks to isolate themselves/ourselves until we get a vaccine. Let the young have their world.

And anyway, the young need to work to pay for the Social Security and Medicare of the old.

We're not doing to older folks any favors if the economy is so trashed that we cannot maintain the structures that care for them.

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, the wife of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has tested positive for the coronavirus.

In a statement released Thursday night, the prime minister’s office said she was tested at the advice of doctors after a trip to Britain. The test came back positive.

“She is feeling well, is taking all the recommended precautions and her symptoms remain mild,” the statement said.

The prime minister is not showing symptoms, according to his office, but he will self-isolate for 14 days. The statement included a personal message from Sophie Grégoire Trudeau.

“Although I’m experiencing uncomfortable symptoms of the virus, I will be back on my feet soon,” she wrote in the statement.

“We will get through this situation together. Please share the facts and take your health seriously,” she continued. “I send you all my courage and warm thoughts (but only “get better” hugs from afar!).”

Either way there will be some sort of recession. Either the virus spreads throughout the entire population and a large chunk of them suffer in pain and become functionally unable to do their jobs (likely causing an even worse collapse of hospitals and medical systems), or preventative measures are taken and workers are sent home as businesses close or slow for the time being. The second option, while still damaging, the risk of infection is reduced, and it is easier to go back to standard operations once the pandemic ends. There is no easy fix here though.

The Trudeaus are young. Their experience is what I am talking about.

If you're under 50, this bug is no big deal unless you are immunocompromised

It's not no big deal though. Death rates and permanent damage aside, people under 60 have absolutely died from it, perhaps in larger numbers than are being recorded. Numbers which are already at the very least several times higher than the average flu. Ignoring this is dangerous considering just how little information we still have on this virus.

I never said to ignore it

I'm placing myself in the breach daily to treat those who might have it

I'm washing my hand assiduously. Use sanitizer. Take precautions. Both to protect me and my patients. But I'd still fly to Germany and I'd still love to see Miku-chan in concert. I'd risk this bug to do so. And if I get sick, I'll sit it out, recover, and resume my care for people who get it after me.

Again, I am distinguishing between those under 50 and those over 60 or immunocompromised.