Message from @Dr.Cosby

Discord ID: 636677836807340050


2019-10-23 21:26:25 UTC  

All those issues were relitigated in 2018 with disastrous consequences for trump

2019-10-23 21:27:19 UTC  

I mean midterms usually favour the opposition party

2019-10-23 21:27:25 UTC  

That’s not accurate

2019-10-23 21:27:30 UTC  

The party's presidential nominee is chosen primarily by pledged delegates, which are in turn selected through a series of individual state caucuses and primary elections. Superdelegates, delegates whose votes are not bound to the outcome of a state's caucus or primary, may also influence the nomination.

The size of delegations to the Democratic National Convention, for each state, territory, or other political subdivision, are described in the party's quadrennial Call for the Democratic National Convention.

Idk that seems pretty obtuse to me

2019-10-23 21:27:35 UTC  

Midterms usually favor conservatives

2019-10-23 21:27:39 UTC  

Who have higher turnout

2019-10-23 21:27:53 UTC  

And not indicative of polls which basically deal with it like it's a popular vote

2019-10-23 21:28:05 UTC  

Well hold up

2019-10-23 21:28:15 UTC  

First of all, superdelegates only get to vote on late ballots

2019-10-23 21:28:20 UTC  

Basically tie breakers

2019-10-23 21:28:21 UTC  

In many states you have to physically show up to some convention to "vote"

2019-10-23 21:28:36 UTC  

Yes, those are caucuses

2019-10-23 21:28:41 UTC  

Primaries aren't a thing in the UK

2019-10-23 21:28:49 UTC  

Secondly, the superdelegates represent the party

2019-10-23 21:29:08 UTC  

Definitely unique from my perspective

2019-10-23 21:29:16 UTC  

They’re the actual party, they keep the process from getting hijacked

2019-10-23 21:29:21 UTC  

They’re all elected

2019-10-23 21:29:35 UTC  

Or they were all elected at some point, some are legacy

2019-10-23 21:29:45 UTC  

Like Obama, Clinton and Carter get to vote

2019-10-23 21:30:16 UTC  

But that’s a tiny number of them

2019-10-23 21:30:25 UTC  

Yeah I'm just saying that a (popular) poll showing Biden behind doesn't necessarily translate to how many delegates will pick who

2019-10-23 21:30:37 UTC  

Right, but a poll in Iowa does

2019-10-23 21:31:18 UTC  

Caucuses are more unpredictable than primaries because they have basically instant runoff voting

2019-10-23 21:31:41 UTC  

And people literally can just convince people in the convention hall to support someone else in the next round

2019-10-23 21:31:52 UTC  

Not to mention that different states allow different groups to vote

2019-10-23 21:32:00 UTC  

Florida is a closed primary

2019-10-23 21:32:03 UTC  

Ohio is open

2019-10-23 21:32:24 UTC  

Yeah they should all be closed imo

2019-10-23 21:32:38 UTC  

But I see the logic both ways

2019-10-23 21:32:46 UTC  

Or at least semi closed (I forgot the official term for it(

2019-10-23 21:32:52 UTC  

But pollsters take those factors into account

2019-10-23 21:35:04 UTC  

Local pollsters are often better because they understand unique things about the local pops to take into account

2019-10-23 21:35:32 UTC  

Like look at Ann selzer, the top rated pollsters who picked up Obama’s win in Iowa early

2019-10-23 21:36:39 UTC  

She was able to see first time voters were leaning overwhelmingly for Obama, while other pollsters weighting likely voters by past behavior weren’t picking up that signal

2019-10-23 21:39:36 UTC  

sophie is pretty boring because all she talks about is the same shit over and over

2019-10-23 21:39:42 UTC  

shaking my head my head

2019-10-23 21:42:21 UTC  

Are you tired of seeing politics talk on this politics channel of this politics server?

2019-10-23 21:42:35 UTC  

Maybe fuck off?

2019-10-23 21:43:42 UTC  

Drumf bad <:peepodumb:538083903835996176>

2019-10-23 21:44:00 UTC  

Also I have never previously brought up Iowa polling or Ann selzer. You’re confused because it’s over your head, just like most thugs in this channel