And Biden sure isn’t the reality tv choice

I'm talking about Trump winning

He did well because he said the most idiotic things you can think of. Calling Mexicans "criminals", saying he'll bomb Muslim families in Syria

I disagree

I agree that the polls point to Biden not being the nominee. But isn't the DNC process for actually voting on one kind of weird?

There’s very little evidence to show that helped

No, how is it weird?

All those issues were relitigated in 2018 with disastrous consequences for trump

I mean midterms usually favour the opposition party

That’s not accurate

The party's presidential nominee is chosen primarily by pledged delegates, which are in turn selected through a series of individual state caucuses and primary elections. Superdelegates, delegates whose votes are not bound to the outcome of a state's caucus or primary, may also influence the nomination.

The size of delegations to the Democratic National Convention, for each state, territory, or other political subdivision, are described in the party's quadrennial Call for the Democratic National Convention.

Idk that seems pretty obtuse to me

Midterms usually favor conservatives

Who have higher turnout

And not indicative of polls which basically deal with it like it's a popular vote

Well hold up

First of all, superdelegates only get to vote on late ballots

Basically tie breakers

In many states you have to physically show up to some convention to "vote"

Yes, those are caucuses

Primaries aren't a thing in the UK

Secondly, the superdelegates represent the party

Definitely unique from my perspective

They’re the actual party, they keep the process from getting hijacked

They’re all elected

Or they were all elected at some point, some are legacy

Like Obama, Clinton and Carter get to vote

But that’s a tiny number of them

Yeah I'm just saying that a (popular) poll showing Biden behind doesn't necessarily translate to how many delegates will pick who

Right, but a poll in Iowa does

Caucuses are more unpredictable than primaries because they have basically instant runoff voting

And people literally can just convince people in the convention hall to support someone else in the next round

Not to mention that different states allow different groups to vote

Florida is a closed primary

Ohio is open

Yeah they should all be closed imo

But I see the logic both ways

Or at least semi closed (I forgot the official term for it(

But pollsters take those factors into account

Local pollsters are often better because they understand unique things about the local pops to take into account

Like look at Ann selzer, the top rated pollsters who picked up Obama’s win in Iowa early

She was able to see first time voters were leaning overwhelmingly for Obama, while other pollsters weighting likely voters by past behavior weren’t picking up that signal