wow so this really was a republican victory, albeit not the victory we wanted

that was a lose we could afford

reality is if we lost every seat this year that is up for grabs (which wont happen since we've won these) the conservatives wont be at that much of a disadvantage.

or at least not what the liberals think

yeah, I'm not impressed by the Democrats' performances

all that money and turnout from pissed off spergs, only to lose all these races

only winning because Republican's aren't putting up a fight

picture what happens when the GOP actually does put up a fight

tbh can't wait for the Massachusetts elections

we got our Governor, both state reps, our attorney general, and nearly all our local positions up for grabs

Baker (sitting Gov. (R)) seems to be in the clear, liked by everyone (in the state)

Warren as I have said before is either loved or loathed and has some tough competition

and hopefully our AG dies from aids or some shit

seriously fuck O'Healy

WAIT WHAT

wut?

where's that from

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

>Nate Silver

I've created a dynamic swing calculator in excel (basically accounts for the fact that it's harder for already very dem-leaning seats to swing the same amount as Republican seats)

The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate currently has things as D+7.9, I accounting for the fact that there has been an average error of 2 points from the early ballot averages, and a theoretical error of 5 points, here are the following scenarios:


D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239

Dems need to clear the double digits in the generic ballot before the GOP gerrymander really starts to break down

With dynamic swing, Dem's take control at D+10.3; with universal swing it takes D+13.9.

Currently haven't factored in incumbency, but that probably makes things a little easier for the Democrats to take over given House retirements.

hmm

we'll see

https://pastebin.com/4EpMDmXB

hey guys

pastebin for the general

so that any of you can make a general whenever you want

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/157047398

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/157049151

new thread

shit, I guess I'll just stick to making this thread beyond 5pm EST

already on page 8, no bumps

hey, I got a question for everyone here

What forms of Internet activism should we use for the midterms ?

we all know the impact the meme war had in 2016 , but that was a national race. Everyone in the country knew who Trump and Hillary were

whereas 99% of people who live in California can't name who's the House Rep from New Hampshire

(that's not an actual study, but it's almost certainly the case)

I'm bumping the general now

some people are criticizing /rsg/ as having "walls of texts"

Does anyone else here agree with that notion

yes

focus on one election at a time

when we're dealing with an entire country with tons of elections in each state we could have to make walls of text

maybe as a suggestion we could solely relegate that to the pastebins.

I think people are just suffering from Internet induced ADD

they don't look like walls of texts to me

for instance, the OP is just a series of links

focus on images and maps

with arrows and highlights for the districts

I second this, they give a lot of info that's needed

this is an actual wall of text

the thing is, I have no experience creating images

I'll leave that to other people

I'll just save up any good images

i'm your guy for maps

nice

well, that's why we have discord of course

another thing I'm noticing is anons trying to sympathize with "blue dogs" in the senate

with Schumer running the show, that doesn't mean shit anymore

I think we could use that a leverage against the Ds in Congress who are voting against Rs on everything.

Pennsylvania

attack the voting record, Manchin, considered a "blue dog", doesn't really vote with Trump on anything he proposes

https://imgur.com/a/gTYpd

@FLanon

save these pics in a folder

and use them for your bump posts in future threads

I'll be sure to do that

'bump' by itself bumps a thread, but attaching an image can provoke further discussion

I'll be expanding my folder of pics and will be showing more as I add them

btw, bump the threads every 10 minutes or so

just enough to keep it from expiring

not too much that it's redundant

getting back to Manchin, he's not chanting "impeach 45", but the way he votes, the effect is exactly the same.

https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_115th_United_States_Congress_(2017-2018)

We should have /PA/nons campaigning for Saccone

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueMidterm2018/

who here has heard of this subreddit

I've known of it for quite a while

it's what inspired me to come up with a counterpart on /pol/

I tried to launch a midterm general back in Nov/Dec, didn't get much traction

I looked some more into PA, Saccone is definitely Trumpian.

good

I think he has a great chance at winning in

So does everyone, it seems

a midterm general back in Nov/Dec ?

interesting, let me see if I can find it in the archive

I think I had it under the name america midterms general or something of that nature

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/156870555/#156870555

I just noticed someone made a "Political Action General" a couple days ago

well, the more the merrier

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/134830688/#134830688

someone made one in July 2017

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/145777279/#145777279

ah

here's yours

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/145788385/#145788385

yeah, it didn't go very far, the consensus on "/ourguy/" was out of whack, not too much came along with it

it's a bit too early

there's still a lot of time between now and the primaries

which is why I don't get why people are panicking about Mandel dropping out in Ohio