wut?

where's that from

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

>Nate Silver

I've created a dynamic swing calculator in excel (basically accounts for the fact that it's harder for already very dem-leaning seats to swing the same amount as Republican seats)

The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate currently has things as D+7.9, I accounting for the fact that there has been an average error of 2 points from the early ballot averages, and a theoretical error of 5 points, here are the following scenarios:


D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239

Dems need to clear the double digits in the generic ballot before the GOP gerrymander really starts to break down

With dynamic swing, Dem's take control at D+10.3; with universal swing it takes D+13.9.

Currently haven't factored in incumbency, but that probably makes things a little easier for the Democrats to take over given House retirements.

hmm

we'll see

https://pastebin.com/4EpMDmXB

hey guys

pastebin for the general

so that any of you can make a general whenever you want

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/157047398

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/157049151

new thread

shit, I guess I'll just stick to making this thread beyond 5pm EST

already on page 8, no bumps

hey, I got a question for everyone here

What forms of Internet activism should we use for the midterms ?

we all know the impact the meme war had in 2016 , but that was a national race. Everyone in the country knew who Trump and Hillary were

whereas 99% of people who live in California can't name who's the House Rep from New Hampshire

(that's not an actual study, but it's almost certainly the case)

I'm bumping the general now

some people are criticizing /rsg/ as having "walls of texts"

Does anyone else here agree with that notion

yes

focus on one election at a time

when we're dealing with an entire country with tons of elections in each state we could have to make walls of text

maybe as a suggestion we could solely relegate that to the pastebins.

I think people are just suffering from Internet induced ADD

they don't look like walls of texts to me

for instance, the OP is just a series of links

focus on images and maps

with arrows and highlights for the districts

I second this, they give a lot of info that's needed

this is an actual wall of text

the thing is, I have no experience creating images

I'll leave that to other people

I'll just save up any good images

i'm your guy for maps

nice