Message from @Red Storm (in NYC)
Discord ID: 403254357585559562
that was a lose we could afford
reality is if we lost every seat this year that is up for grabs (which wont happen since we've won these) the conservatives wont be at that much of a disadvantage.
or at least not what the liberals think
yeah, I'm not impressed by the Democrats' performances
all that money and turnout from pissed off spergs, only to lose all these races
only winning because Republican's aren't putting up a fight
picture what happens when the GOP actually does put up a fight
tbh can't wait for the Massachusetts elections
we got our Governor, both state reps, our attorney general, and nearly all our local positions up for grabs
Baker (sitting Gov. (R)) seems to be in the clear, liked by everyone (in the state)
Warren as I have said before is either loved or loathed and has some tough competition
and hopefully our AG dies from aids or some shit
seriously fuck O'Healy
WAIT WHAT
wut?
where's that from
>Nate Silver
I've created a dynamic swing calculator in excel (basically accounts for the fact that it's harder for already very dem-leaning seats to swing the same amount as Republican seats)
The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate currently has things as D+7.9, I accounting for the fact that there has been an average error of 2 points from the early ballot averages, and a theoretical error of 5 points, here are the following scenarios:
D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239
Dems need to clear the double digits in the generic ballot before the GOP gerrymander really starts to break down
With dynamic swing, Dem's take control at D+10.3; with universal swing it takes D+13.9.
Currently haven't factored in incumbency, but that probably makes things a little easier for the Democrats to take over given House retirements.
hmm
hey guys
pastebin for the general
so that any of you can make a general whenever you want
new thread
shit, I guess I'll just stick to making this thread beyond 5pm EST
already on page 8, no bumps
hey, I got a question for everyone here
What forms of Internet activism should we use for the midterms ?
we all know the impact the meme war had in 2016 , but that was a national race. Everyone in the country knew who Trump and Hillary were
whereas 99% of people who live in California can't name who's the House Rep from New Hampshire
(that's not an actual study, but it's almost certainly the case)
I'm bumping the general now
some people are criticizing /rsg/ as having "walls of texts"
Does anyone else here agree with that notion
yes
focus on one election at a time
when we're dealing with an entire country with tons of elections in each state we could have to make walls of text