Message from @Sq crcl

Discord ID: 687869937145872433


2020-03-13 02:00:11 UTC  

> Justin Trudeau in self-isolation as wife undergoes testing for coronavirus

2020-03-13 02:00:18 UTC  

I really hope so. Our medical system should be able to absorb 6x as many cases but that's only true if they are spread out enough.

2020-03-13 02:00:48 UTC  

if, you know that wont happen mate

2020-03-13 02:00:50 UTC  

US is fairly typical of the west with ~2.8 beds per 1k people.

2020-03-13 02:01:17 UTC  

Italy is about the same or maybe a bit under that from a chart I saw somewhere.

2020-03-13 02:03:58 UTC  

Where we differ are cultural habits that might increase or decrease spread speed and the amount of supplies stockpiled in hospitals.

2020-03-13 02:11:20 UTC  

I guess I had the hospital beds situation backwards, all the numbers I can find point towards Italy having more than the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

2020-03-13 02:12:19 UTC  

Of course I don't know what the proportion of existing beds compared to how full they normally are is for the countries.

2020-03-13 02:12:46 UTC  

I seem to remember hearing the US is normally ~65% occupied.

2020-03-13 03:06:18 UTC  

True closed border

2020-03-13 03:14:39 UTC  

its too late, we all know this

2020-03-13 03:23:50 UTC  

Can't believe the Spanish gov will act later than the Catalans

2020-03-13 03:26:58 UTC  

Spain 🇪🇸
```
Infected: 3,059
Deaths: 86
Serious: 190
Critical: 0
Recovered: 189```

2020-03-13 03:38:54 UTC  

86 deaths?

2020-03-13 03:38:55 UTC  

Yikes.

2020-03-13 03:40:37 UTC  

2.8% about right

2020-03-13 03:49:33 UTC  

No, unfortunately

2020-03-13 03:49:41 UTC  

We still lack sufficient data

2020-03-13 03:51:01 UTC  

.

Some countries do have really low rates mainly (?) do the extreme and swift containment measures

Unrecorded 'recoveries'

Unrecorded deaths

2020-03-13 03:51:52 UTC  

But it shows we can have a range of outcomes depending on the factors being different

2020-03-13 03:51:57 UTC  

That's good

2020-03-13 03:53:01 UTC  

A lot of that seems to be how well the healthcare system can cope with the cases. If there's no problem and enough ICU beds for people than the death rate can apparently be below 1% as is seen in South Korea and China outside Wuhan.

2020-03-13 03:53:15 UTC  

When overwhelmed then it can apparently easily be over 3%.

2020-03-13 03:53:54 UTC  

It's going to be hard to tell for probably a year or more when basically all the cases are closed out and holes in data are filled in.

2020-03-13 03:54:47 UTC  

Or everyone running the information recordings are dead.

2020-03-13 03:55:05 UTC  

Take a look at this..

2020-03-13 03:55:19 UTC  

Combine the fact that SK is testing the fuck out of everyone and has 12 hospital beds per 1k people they are doing amazingly well.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/678532257924907018/687871388421586988/1_TkQ3WQXO8q-r2LIRWpJuOw.png

2020-03-13 03:55:48 UTC  

Italy has 3.2 beds per 1k people.

2020-03-13 03:56:52 UTC  

>WY is the worst
Great...

2020-03-13 03:57:19 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/678532257924907018/687871891805044769/Capture_2020-03-13-04-57-11.png

2020-03-13 03:57:44 UTC  

Wyoming has like 100 miles between towns too

2020-03-13 03:57:51 UTC  

easy to isolate

2020-03-13 03:57:53 UTC  

But this map looked a whole lot more dire a few days ago

2020-03-13 03:58:02 UTC  

All the West Coast was red

2020-03-13 03:58:31 UTC  

You say that but we also frequently travel between them.