@UnScottable imagine a world where biden actually wins

I have a good grasp on how game theory works, but I know more about general strategy including human variables

What I know is that politics is mostly unsolved, anything could happen at any moment. There are some better strategies than others, but no definitively best one at the moment (at least not one that is known to anyone).

that world be so boooring. itd be a lame duck president. that just does whatever the dems want but otherwise forgets where he is <:pepelaugh:544857300179877898>

when using multivariate game theory, just as using multivariate analyis, it allows us to predict fairly well

better than lets say binary

I doubt anyone could've predicted the true success rate for either party in 2016

in perspective, it will never be perfect

@ETBrooD companies like data analytics could, and its companies like them which control the propaganda and who to push it too. you would be surprised how awesome it is to have everyones facebook day 😉

who cares about the normal people! we out here fore money

Politics is too big for this to be calculated precisely

hedge funds use it too

Far too many unknown variables

it will never be perfect

it just has to be better than currenty strategies

Well alright, I think Trump has a better than 25% chance to win the next election, and no better than 75%
Now who's gonna provide more accurate numbers? With irrefutable numbers to back it up.

does not have to be perfect, just better than normal means, same way hedge funds are able to be satisfied with 61% stock picking sucess with their multivariate analysis, it will make them a profit more than those who do not, which over time, is cumulative

@ETBrooD using large data, facebook, twitter, and census, including IMPUS data bases for ACS data, and others, firms can get a pretty good picture of how people vote, tweek their poltical message and win another 1% which matters

it works extrememly well on smaller elections

Obviously

you can buy data on small towns, and rig the elections just based off of platform pandering

Smaller scale scenarios can be predicted more accurately

from there you can see the variable which is most imporant

guess which variable is more important in our models

most important

wild guess

That the person is alive?

an assumed variable

but not the one i was talking about

How often they appear on TV and in public?

its funny because i bet you said that as a joke, but alot of dead people vote

I'm not sure what your question is about

The candidates? The voting patterns?

no the biggest variable which impacts how an indivudal will vote is their identity and race

democraft firms, and our repubicans firms, both know this

we have to push it to win

put it into any model with big data

Uhm

that being said, it usually just makes about x(.3)

I'm sure you're aware more candidates have been white men

so its not even a majority of the way people vote