Message from @₳ U T U M N 🦋
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Also the next election likely hinges on the reforms Boris makes in the first two years of his term.
Blair got something ridiculous
Well over 100
197
in '97
What's the criteria for a marginal? Winning by less than about 10% or?
yes
Blair got a majority of 179
and then the "size" of a marginal (or 'how marginal the marginal is') is determined the size of the majority
It was insane
so for example
east dunbartonshire is probably the smallest majority
in uk history
i'm probably wrong, there might have been a seat with 1
but 149(?) is still small
razor-thin
Yup
149 is gone at the next election barring a miracle
You only need 75 people to change their mind to win it. Or 150 to decide to switch to not voting or for a minor party.
Yup
Boris is probably going to win the next election big and then it’ll be up to whether Labour or the Liberals get their arses in gear.
his majority was insane
They went from their best ever results under blair then never won an election afterward in a decline to the point of arguably their worst ever result.
But those are the same things... People found Corbyn unpopular because of his stance on Brexit
Among other things
Notice that they also lost 9% of their vote to the LDs
Can someone explain to me the current Brexit deal, was told it’s a pretty shit deal
@Lewis Basically it keeps the payment to the EU but is designed for us to diverge economically, we continue cooperating on anti-terrorism and the like but be don't accept the jurisdiction of EU courts and aren't forced to keep ourselves aligned to the EU. The only bad thing about it is up to Boris. Basically whether or not he decides to take us out on no deal or on a free trade deal OR whether he makes concessions to the EU. Considering that he's already altering the deal to favour the UK I doubt he's going to give concessions.
So basically no deal is the best option
That’s probably not gonna happen
Well no. A free trade agreement without ties is the best option.
The most likely outcome right now is FTA without ties followed by a kinda no deal (basically everything sorted but no trade deal) and then by (if the EU puts up a fight) a proper no deal.
Do you really reckon Boris will pull of Brexit ?
Off
Properly and actually worth t