One thing I do know is FPTP is weird, and I'm not sure I like it with a house that has full control over itself, the country and everything else. After the whole brexit shit show I'd like to see some reforms.

380. relaistic.

lol

340 if you're lucky

Fuck off doompill!

Let me think about it.

No

Get real

With the polls suggesting 410+ I am being realistic

The polls are wrong

You tell me where they're going to pick up 125 seats from

Wales, the North of England

40mps from wales, of which 8 are already tory

Ok? The tories are 3% ahead in wales now instead of being 15% behind, that'll translate into a good gathering of seats

13 in wales have less than 10,000 majority to overturn

so that leaves you 112 short

not including the 13 in scotland the tories are likely to lose

They'll also run candidates in the seats that ejected tories held

They're not though

Aberdeen and the borders are going to keep their tories

possibly

Not possibly, I live up here, those are going to be retained, Id be very surprised otherwise

and i'm not trying to be unkind, but 410+ is absurd, 380 is still obscenely and unrealistically optomistic

Not according to polling

the polling relies on models that haven't been built to take into account brexit

The polls just ask people what they're voting

yes, it's a sample

Theres a reason they're 15% ahead though

i don't doubt that they're 15% ahead

So whence cometh doubt

how many would be enough to get sht done?

320?

326 required for majority

Brexit has polarised the vote, just because they're 15% ahead in the polls doesn't mean a large majority

Yes it does

It absolutely does

so 340 would be like... everything proposed pretty much gets through... even with a little bit of rebels here and there

Yes, Wacka, and at this stage it's what i'm predicting

and 330 would be most stuff

330 is what Cameron got in 2015

To put it in perspective, Tony Blair won his landslide with a 13% lead