Yet an openish country like sweden does better if barely so

we had the two first deaths in december, both below 30.

Just like the netherlands... it does better

I had the 'Vid btw

these are italian, and correspond pretty well to what has been seen here before the last mutation.

Well yes and no. Italy made some horendous mistakes regarding the elderly

Esp. In rural areas

yeah, there are no good choices in this, just less bad ones and you won't know which are less bad until much later ...

(note that in the table, the author has made a translation error. They mean CFR, not IFR)

Just as in belgium most elderly deaths came from nursing houses

And the mismanagment of them (gov. Statement btw)

@meglide well, the question becomes, do you have a lesser chance of being re-elected if people see body bags, or if people loose their jobs?

hard to predict.

Jobs according to the WOF

And other inst.

Again, we might be mistaken at the basis that we are talking about hugely differing populations and areas

@meglide Most epidemiologists know what the medical sound thing to do is, based on the spread pattern. But those measures will kill the economy and the psyche of the population.

so it becomes a political issue.

@andrasol indeed. Populations can not be compared here without some thought. Asians function better in isolation, caucausians have lower mortality rates.

There is a diff. Between what epid. Think is sound.

And what human rights allow

and those are just the immediate consequences ... then there are the long term consequences of increased poverty, etc. ... long term consequences of delayed medical treatment ... long term consequences of being infected by the virus ... list goes on and on

agreed

add to that now, the long term effect of T-cell modulation (vaccines), which will be horrible....

"must be expected to be" I mean.

I cant see the western world surviving this in its current state.

I note how everyone is hanging on "till the vaccines get here".

That will lead no massive disappointment.

and unrest

Interesting to note that the occident was broken by a common cold that was just a little harder than usual.

"a little harder than usual" ... actually needs more explanation, is that because it's novel and we humans are experiencing it all at once (due to international travel) right as it is introduced into the population? is it because the western world is at the point where we can live longer with more co-morbidities (things that would have killed us earlier in the past)? it's at the margin in some respects but an 100 year type event in other respects it seems ... which makes it a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type of event to respond to

@meglide the major difference between thisone and other corona virii is the high R

This may be due to the fecal excretion, giving it more pathways/vectors than normal.

There is no reason to believe that the disease itself is significantly more deadly that other corona-infections, (emphasis on significantly, because it does show higher virulence and autoimmunity than "Normal" Coronas).

The reason it is breaking the west, is because so many people get sick at once.

That is partly due to the properties of this variant, and partially due to what Byung-chul Han describes as "the transparency society". Because everyone has a need to be seen, they need to meet up much more often than the earlier generations, and this need has been completely out of control in the milennial.

How much more virulent? As a med student, my first autopsy was a 13 y.o. who died of coronal cardiac infection. That was decades ago.

Another contributing factor is that medicial advances has made sure people survive with conditions which would have killed them onlu 10 years ago. They are a high-risk cohort that yesteryears coronas did not travel through.

Are you satisfied with this, @meglide Or was it too chaotic and unstructured? (my bad if so). 😛

The best approach in my mind is the Great Barrington Declaration (https://gbdeclaration.org/) I signed it the day it came out. Focused protection on vulnerable persons, while the rest of society attempts to continue life as normal with certain precautions to avoid overstressing the existing healthcare system. (Which isn't too hard to do, because hospitals tend to try to run at 95+% capacity during normal operations to save money)

no this is fine ... I appreciate the discussion. I understand the statistics but the medical I'm learning on the fly ... this discussion follows other discussions I've had with my medical doctor friends ...