at worst, we'll have a thinned House majority and a slightly larger senate majority

It was a good day, shame that CA-08 was the only lockout, but the numbers were good enough for us that I think we can hold and maybe expand in CA

but if you get a little more optimistic, ...just a little bit, I think we can get a slightly thicker House majority than what we have now, and a 60+ Senate majority

yeah, the thing is, I don't think it matters much that we didn't have many lockouts

for instance, what do you think of Dana Rohrabacher's chances of winning this November

Yeah but they would've been so butthurt

Well lemme just add up the R and the D votes

many of them are stil butthurt regardless when you look at the screenshots @GermanEastAfrica posted

of course

my reasoning is -- Dana Rohrabacher survived 2008 and 2012, which were solidly blue years

and if you compare GOP primary votes from 2014 to 2018, you'll see a general increase nationwide

Yeah but you have to look at it this way: the demos aren't getting any better in California

which means that GOP voters shouldn't be staying home for November like they have for all these special elections

I think what we can do is give GOP candidates a floor/minimum of the votes they got in 2014

for instance, Rohrabacher got 112,082 votes in 2014

I think he'll get at least that amount

Overall Republicans in CA-48 (Rohrabacher's district) got more than 50% of the vote

So that should bode a bit well

the Democrats, however, got 127,715 votes in 2016 in that district (Rohrabacher got 178,000)

now, if the Democrats squeeze a high amount of their 127,715 and Rohrabacher doesn't improve much, they could win, but I think Democratic enthusiasm won't be that high

they were able to make it high for Roy Moore, but that's about it, and it's partly due to R's crossvoting

so basically, I think we can say that

the minimum votes a GOP candidate will get, barring a major scandal, is the amount they got in 2014

the maximum votes a D candidate can get, if they squeeze everything out, is the amount of votes that Hillary got in their district in 2016

Well that's a nice thought

You know part of what I'm banking on is this summit

Damn, CA 48 wasn’t a Republican vs Republican.

But I think we are losing seats in California.

@Ghawk why do you say that

I should say we aren’t losing seats.

ah, so why do you say that though

@Deleted User I say that because of the lower than expected Democratic margin.

<@&432627153805377536> <@&399683356218097667> any of you available to jump in Voice Chat with me right now? We'll get some work done regarding editing articles, analyzing House races (we haven't really looked at them in detail compared to Senate races) and analyzing Gubernatorial races

https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/

the first task is to look at this and determine the chances of who will win in each state

>Not using Red Storm Crystal Ball

I'll listen to the chat, can't talk exactly because not on PC, but I'll talk in chat

Also, TX-2 is a district that worries me and nobody talks about it.

I'll get on chat in a sec.

Oh yeah, Pie, how are your rating updates based on the California result?

So I'll listen, just not talk in mic

Have you landed in the chad state of Florida yet?

nope

still stuck in cali hell for three more days

Why are you in California for so long?