Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 453928416920469517
a ton, in fact
most districts still below 50 percent reporting
who won in cali?
Which district? @Deleted User 33b75db0
In terms of governor and senator
***Blue wave*** TOP FUCKING LMAO
What a leftist joke
@FLanon well, as of 100% in this morning for District 26, Sabato is now in 2nd place
what do you like about him
Oh great
I think he's gonna be good for fundraising and that sort of thing
@Swamp Killer
"Wont the dems also try to mobolize more people after they saw how bad they did in the primary"
the thing is, I don't think the Democrats will perform much higher than they did today
It's the principle: If you're a Republican in California, your best shot to win is to be a celebrity.
@FLanon What is your overall impression of the results of June 5 ? I'm starting to lean even further toward the idea that there will be no blue wave
The Schwarzenegger Principle
at worst, we'll have a thinned House majority and a slightly larger senate majority
It was a good day, shame that CA-08 was the only lockout, but the numbers were good enough for us that I think we can hold and maybe expand in CA
but if you get a little more optimistic, ...just a little bit, I think we can get a slightly thicker House majority than what we have now, and a 60+ Senate majority
yeah, the thing is, I don't think it matters much that we didn't have many lockouts
Yeah but they would've been so butthurt
Well lemme just add up the R and the D votes
many of them are stil butthurt regardless when you look at the screenshots @GermanEastAfrica posted
of course
my reasoning is -- Dana Rohrabacher survived 2008 and 2012, which were solidly blue years
and if you compare GOP primary votes from 2014 to 2018, you'll see a general increase nationwide
Yeah but you have to look at it this way: the demos aren't getting any better in California
which means that GOP voters shouldn't be staying home for November like they have for all these special elections
I think what we can do is give GOP candidates a floor/minimum of the votes they got in 2014
for instance, Rohrabacher got 112,082 votes in 2014
I think he'll get at least that amount
Overall Republicans in CA-48 (Rohrabacher's district) got more than 50% of the vote
So that should bode a bit well
the Democrats, however, got 127,715 votes in 2016 in that district (Rohrabacher got 178,000)
now, if the Democrats squeeze a high amount of their 127,715 and Rohrabacher doesn't improve much, they could win, but I think Democratic enthusiasm won't be that high
they were able to make it high for Roy Moore, but that's about it, and it's partly due to R's crossvoting
so basically, I think we can say that
the minimum votes a GOP candidate will get, barring a major scandal, is the amount they got in 2014
the maximum votes a D candidate can get, if they squeeze everything out, is the amount of votes that Hillary got in their district in 2016
Well that's a nice thought
You know part of what I'm banking on is this summit
Damn, CA 48 wasn’t a Republican vs Republican.
But I think we are losing seats in California.