Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 479344976745201666
Some stats in the case of Wisconsin - in 2014, the GOP had 240k votes in total in the primaries. In 2018, it had well over 450k.
In 2014, the Democrats had 310k votes in total in the primaries. in 2018, it had well over 530k.
The ratio of D-R in primary votes greatly favours the Republican compared with 2014.
Remember also, Scott Walker had 70k less primary votes in 2014 but tidily won the election with 52.3% to 46.6%.
I'd give Wisconsin a tilt/lean GOP in terms of its governorship.
@[Lex] but democrats are more energized now and will get better turnout for being the party out of power.
Democrats need the independent white vote to win this.
the same pattern keeps holding
Democrats are massively improving from their 2014 numbers, but Republicans are moderately improving
keep in mind that 2014 was a Republican favored year though
The fact that Walker faced a primary challenge will likely hurt his support.
Remember that without the help of #NeverTrumpers who voted for Cruz in the Wisconsin primary, Trump had to rely on Sanders supporters to win Wisconsin in the general.
I don't think Scott Walker can depend on this.
remember that Romney had a higher vote total in Wisconsin than Trump
partly due to suburban voters shifting towards Hillary
Scott Walker has incumbency advantage though
btw, we gotta update the Wordpress for a bunch of states
I haven't changed things in almost two months
we need to do writeups on all the senate and gubernatorial races that have already had their primaries
@Deleted User mostly due to the fact democrats stayed home in Wisconsin.
I think Trump carrying that state was a fluke, it won't happen again if democrats are prepared.
We won that state on their laziness, not because Trump inspired more people to vote for him.
next 2020 Democratic Candidate could also have shit appeal for Wisconsin, like Hillary
they weren't 'lazy' in 2016 for Hillary, they just didn't like her
on the other hand, when it comes to Pennsylvania and Michigan, you do see the "Trump inspiring more people to vote for him" narrative exist
all states Romney lost in 2012
Trump didn't even campaign in Wisconsin as much as some others
@Deleted User yeah but those people he appealed to are abandoning him now, Trump approval among whites in all the rust belt states is below 50%.
@zakattack04 that ain't true
@Deleted User it is ;-;
Other thing is she didn’t campaign as good in the rust belt
And most of her supporters thought that she was going to win the election because at the time it looked like she was going to win
Hillary was leading in Wisconsin by 7 according to the polls
@Deleted User Hillary lost by one point in Wisconsin but again she should went back campaign harder then what she did
Can’t always look at polls because they do change a lot
I’m not saying that your wrong or anything i do remember that she was was 7 points but again you can’t tell how turn out is going to be like
it just shows that polling isn't always reliable, and can sometimes be way off
Exactly
@Deleted User But Hilary was ahead of Trump, but the Democrats there were so confident of victory they didn't show up to vote.
We won Wisconsin with luck, Trump lost votes from Romney in WI but won it because Democrats stayed home.
If they decide to show up, Wisconsin goes blue.
That goes back to Voter turn out
We had more voter turn out then we though Democrats didn’t stayed home Zack they didn’t have a turn out like they thought
So yes your are wrong because i have no idea where you are getting this info at
@zakattack04 or maybe the polls were just off?