So this election is unpredictable.

hopefully they vote more in the Democratic Primary which leads to Keith Stern primarying him out

Some stats in the case of Wisconsin - in 2014, the GOP had 240k votes in total in the primaries. In 2018, it had well over 450k.
In 2014, the Democrats had 310k votes in total in the primaries. in 2018, it had well over 530k.
The ratio of D-R in primary votes greatly favours the Republican compared with 2014.
Remember also, Scott Walker had 70k less primary votes in 2014 but tidily won the election with 52.3% to 46.6%.

I'd give Wisconsin a tilt/lean GOP in terms of its governorship.

@[Lex] but democrats are more energized now and will get better turnout for being the party out of power.

Democrats need the independent white vote to win this.

the same pattern keeps holding

Democrats are massively improving from their 2014 numbers, but Republicans are moderately improving

keep in mind that 2014 was a Republican favored year though

The fact that Walker faced a primary challenge will likely hurt his support.

Remember that without the help of #NeverTrumpers who voted for Cruz in the Wisconsin primary, Trump had to rely on Sanders supporters to win Wisconsin in the general.

I don't think Scott Walker can depend on this.

remember that Romney had a higher vote total in Wisconsin than Trump

partly due to suburban voters shifting towards Hillary

Scott Walker has incumbency advantage though

btw, we gotta update the Wordpress for a bunch of states

I haven't changed things in almost two months

we need to do writeups on all the senate and gubernatorial races that have already had their primaries

@Deleted User mostly due to the fact democrats stayed home in Wisconsin.

I think Trump carrying that state was a fluke, it won't happen again if democrats are prepared.

We won that state on their laziness, not because Trump inspired more people to vote for him.

next 2020 Democratic Candidate could also have shit appeal for Wisconsin, like Hillary

they weren't 'lazy' in 2016 for Hillary, they just didn't like her

on the other hand, when it comes to Pennsylvania and Michigan, you do see the "Trump inspiring more people to vote for him" narrative exist

same thing applies to Florida, Ohio, Iowa

all states Romney lost in 2012

Trump didn't even campaign in Wisconsin as much as some others

@Deleted User yeah but those people he appealed to are abandoning him now, Trump approval among whites in all the rust belt states is below 50%.

@zakattack04 that ain't true

@Deleted User it is ;-;

Other thing is she didn’t campaign as good in the rust belt

And most of her supporters thought that she was going to win the election because at the time it looked like she was going to win

Hillary was leading in Wisconsin by 7 according to the polls

@Deleted User Hillary lost by one point in Wisconsin but again she should went back campaign harder then what she did

Can’t always look at polls because they do change a lot

I’m not saying that your wrong or anything i do remember that she was was 7 points but again you can’t tell how turn out is going to be like

it just shows that polling isn't always reliable, and can sometimes be way off

Exactly

@Deleted User But Hilary was ahead of Trump, but the Democrats there were so confident of victory they didn't show up to vote.

We won Wisconsin with luck, Trump lost votes from Romney in WI but won it because Democrats stayed home.

If they decide to show up, Wisconsin goes blue.

That goes back to Voter turn out

We had more voter turn out then we though Democrats didn’t stayed home Zack they didn’t have a turn out like they thought