Message from @megumi cato
Discord ID: 469728933739233280
Also I'm skeptical of the poll data showing Rosen will win by 1 point (even though it's data-deficient as hell)
RED STORM CRYSTAL BALL RATINGS CHANGES
Minnesota: Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat
I'd give light blue to AZ, NV and WV imo.
I did change WV to lean blue...
Huh. Guess something went wrong.
I don't particularly disagree about Klobuchar but I believe that unless Richard Painter defeats Tina Smith in the special primary, Republicans will not allocate sufficient resources to that race.
way too optimistic
I would cry if NJ went red
I hope we win big
I think NJ can go red because the polls are showing Menendez is way weaker than I expected.
If the election were held today I could see it going like this. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/l1bPOa
But there's still a lot of time between now and election day. That TN shit will hopefully get shut down, and NV, AZ, MT, and WV will be toss-ups.
interesting
so, if we won all the tossup and Lean D states, it would look like this
do we even need a filibuster proof majority at this point
I think NV is already a toss-up, but they've been memeing the "blue wave" so much that even tilt-D is treated as safe D. He's definitely the most vulnerable Senator on the map though. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him lose.
more vulnerable than Donnelly?
meant to say republican senator, sorry
Do you guys think Manchin or Tester is more vulnerable?
Manchin probably, maybe Tester is Manchin keeps appeasing West Virginians like he is.
that's a good question. I'm leaning Tester, because Manchin seems more entrenched to me
based on the few things I read about both, Manchin has went out of his way to appease the right-wing than Tester has
I also think Rosendale is a stronger challenger than Morrissey
looks wise, Morrissey loses out
Morrisey is a good challenger IMO; State AG is better than State Auditor.
He's done more for the right.
Tennessee and Missouri, we have to win
Tri-color map without shades: Toss-ups represent states where we should focus our efforts.
ND, MO, IN, TN aren't a sure thing
>Toss-ups represent states where we should focus our efforts.