http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8yr7ol
My map looks more like this. I'm thinking we overperform in the rust-belt. Get 1% or 2% victories in MO, FL and IN, etc. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/awk7oa
Uncertain about NV and AZ.
I still think Ohio is competitive
It could be, but I'd give the incumbent a strong advantage. If we do really well in the rust belt then it's going red after WV and WI but before MI and PA. But if I were betting money, I'd bet blue.
Dude he’s under scandal now, it’s hurt his ratings
He has a lot more money than his literal who opponent. https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=OHS1
And the max margin of error I'm willing to apply to the region is 10 points, and he's up by 15. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/oh/ohio_senate_renacci_vs_brown-6331.html
If Rennaci can bring him down to Manchin levels in polling then I think we can flip it though.
He’s not up by 13
That’s bullshit
biased
it's fake
new york times poll? ohio isn't even in new york btfoi
What the fuck’s wrong with you?
His lowest polling is up 13 points. I know the polls are going to be off, but the most I could possibly see them being off by is 10 points.
Dude all the polls made were either by NBC or Colleges outside of the state
They don’t know what its actually like
Plus it’s show Republicans are consistently underpolled here
What do you mean "underpolled?"
They aren’t really as polled as much
In many elections here the Republicans score 15 more points than the polls say
examples?
The 2016 election
The 2010 midterms
These? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_strickland-5386.html
Yeah
much less than 10 points off
Well obviously they may have changed it
?
Dude they could have changed how it was to make you think differently
Do you remember the margins being off by that much?
Yes
Do you remember the specific election?
No
Do you see why I'm having trouble believing you?
Look man, I don’t trust polls
They’re never accurate to the actual election
I'm just saying that it's very very rare for the polls to be off by more than 10 points.
🆙 | **Amsel leveled up!**
Well who knows
