http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/3p0b7bl

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/DpNyo0K

@Pielover19 We just had a poll come out showing that the Democrat in FL-7 is only 1 point ahead, within the margin of error.

It's highly unlikely that it's a safe Democrat district.

just a few months ago I thought it would be safe for Stephanie Murphy

@Nuke This map is horribly biased. Just looking at my District, it went for Clinton, is rated a Toss-up already, 2 out of 3 polls have Porter ahead, 1 poll puts Walter ahead by 1. No party preference voters in my district prefer D to R by a 2:1 ratio, Walters has a 43% unfavorable rating and a 38% favorable rating, and according to Global Strategy Group found that "a clear majority of voters prefer a Democrat who will be a check on Trump (55%) rather than a Republican who will help Trump pass his agenda (40%)." Furthermore, Democrats have a turnout advantage as the watchdog Party.

The only evidence you have to say it's lean GOP is registration and incumbency.

Registration is incredibly unreliable, and incumbency only somewhat applies because people here don't Like Trump, and she supports Trump's agenda.

And I would assume you made the same judgments with other tilt democrat or tossup districts.

I derive my ratings from Inside Elections, and in this case I just went with their rating for CA-45.

They're being overly fair.

I mean

overly biased lol

They're also a biased, left-wing rating org.

There's no way you can look at CA-45 and tell me that's lean.

Of course

I intentionally use them because that way, you cannot accuse them of bias.

Thats how you energize your party duh Nuke.

If you make districts appear harder than they really are to take.

Your voters won't get lazuy.

And they'll overperform.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Tilt

The opposite of what they did in 2016.

wait wait wait

What did you do with CA-39?

I didn't edit CA-39 either.

What is it put as?

Issa's seat is a tossup?

Are you kidding me?

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Why

Why is CA-49 tossup

Oh, right

I think I actually did list Edward Royce as a lean Republican.

....

Nuke c'mon man.

And CA-49 was left unedited because it's a toss-up, and Issa isn't running.

How is an R+1 where the democrat is outraising the Republican by huge amounts, is ahead in every poll, and we have no incumbency advantage a tossup?

Because AMERICANS live in Issa's district.

dear lord

Yeah no.

I think what we need to do.