MN is pretty accurate tbh

I listed both of those as toss-ups.

yeah that's kinda the point of them

To call a toss-up within saying it's not a toss-up

The 8-color map doesn't make much sense without that.

oh right

almost all of the remaining toss-ups I accidentally left on the revised map are actually Republican likely/lean/tilt districts.

Hey, my map is better. Just saying.

It's up there.

Before your discussion.

Western Colorado?

I'll need to look at it later. Must've been a strong incumbent.

Wait, Coffman's district?

I might have to change that to tilt, to be honest. He's the sort of "true conservative" who could win a Karen district like this.

http://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/3lvPP4p

oh right

Second revised version

What the Fuck Iowa

Likely republican?

Yeah

Way too optomistic.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/273625-mike-miller-starts-cd-7-campaign-in-striking-distance-of-stephanie-murphy

@Marini

>68 percent of young voters, under age 30, want Miller.
>68 percent of young voters, under age 30, want Miller.
>68 percent of young voters, under age 30, want Miller.

hold up

is this like the trafalgar poll in indiana where boomers are like 90% dem or some shit?

that's a fucking crazy number

if that's the only discrepancy, then maybe it's a valid poll, but we'll definitely need more polling info before we decide anything

Geez that's some upset

Ok

Marini, you're like 16 right?

Do you have the ability to volunteer for Mike's campaign?

This poll seems trash.

Let's see

yeah, until further polling comes, I suggest keeping this at likely dem at most

I really don't think that this is very unbelievable with the youth part.

Small sample

but not unusually small for a US Representative race

Miller has unusually strong support among Hispanics, according to this poll, but it's actually pretty comparable to what Bush got in 2004; congressional races have these sorts of anomalies fairly frequently in Florida and Texas. Miller wins the male vote with a plurality, and loses the female vote by eight points. He wins "other"--a group consisting of only 18 persons--with 50%. This is likely due to the incredibly small "other" population. The 18 to 29 age bracket suffers from a similar issue, with only 16 persons answering. So these two look like the Mason-Dixon "60% of Greens voting David Duke" thing.

It isn't really weird or bad.

Just not really good enough.