Message from @FLanon

Discord ID: 429789171008405514


2018-03-31 23:46:45 UTC  

I don’t trust polls, after “Hillary has a 98 percent chance of winning”

2018-03-31 23:46:54 UTC  

not a poll

2018-03-31 23:46:55 UTC  

polls are a total waste of time

2018-03-31 23:47:07 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/399676530394923010/429788769089224719/Trump_Wisconsin_polls.png

2018-03-31 23:47:08 UTC  

Honestly

2018-03-31 23:47:12 UTC  

This is Wisconsin

2018-03-31 23:47:26 UTC  

Just don't waste your time studying polls for candidates

2018-03-31 23:47:32 UTC  

I think on policy they tend to be more reliable.

2018-03-31 23:47:36 UTC  

Anyways, it's still something to keep track of, simply for the movements and how it reacts to certain events

2018-03-31 23:47:40 UTC  

But they pull urban areas more often.

2018-03-31 23:47:51 UTC  

^

2018-03-31 23:47:56 UTC  

not if it's random numbers

2018-03-31 23:48:02 UTC  

Even if it's random

2018-03-31 23:48:09 UTC  

They end up pulling urban areas more often.

2018-03-31 23:48:16 UTC  

what

2018-03-31 23:48:17 UTC  

Just because of proportions

2018-03-31 23:48:20 UTC  

Most people live in cities

2018-03-31 23:48:23 UTC  

So if you pull random

2018-03-31 23:48:30 UTC  

You're going to pull a urban voter most of the time.

2018-03-31 23:48:35 UTC  

that still is significant though

2018-03-31 23:48:43 UTC  

it's not like it's biased

2018-03-31 23:48:49 UTC  

K

2018-03-31 23:48:54 UTC  

if you have random numbers it's objective

2018-03-31 23:49:00 UTC  

Polls can sometimes fail miserably and sometimes be extremely accurate. they're certainly worth considering

2018-03-31 23:49:06 UTC  

^

2018-03-31 23:49:08 UTC  

(random)

2018-03-31 23:49:21 UTC  

Not really, polls have been wrong as a whole for the last like 20 years.

2018-03-31 23:49:28 UTC  

2016 there were wrong everwhere

2018-03-31 23:49:33 UTC  

Even the national polls.

2018-03-31 23:49:37 UTC  

It's a matter of which polling organisation is right the most.

2018-03-31 23:49:41 UTC  

Online polling should definitely be discarded, landline polls are generally good

2018-03-31 23:50:01 UTC  

how can no one see the pattern?

PA-18: Trump job approve 49% Saccone (R) - 49%

GA-06: Trump job approve 52%
Handel (R): 52%

MT-AL: Trump job approve: 50%
Gianforte (R): 50%

2018-03-31 23:50:05 UTC  

The problem is polls don't depict turnout.

2018-03-31 23:50:09 UTC  

And to frame your marketing according to the policy concerns of your constituents.

2018-03-31 23:50:18 UTC  

Those are cherry picking

2018-03-31 23:50:22 UTC  

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 those numbers looked like whoever did them pulled them out of their ass

2018-03-31 23:50:23 UTC  

We've had so many elections Button Mash

2018-03-31 23:50:30 UTC  

You need to do every special election

2018-03-31 23:50:32 UTC  

there's no fucking way they just neatly match up

2018-03-31 23:50:32 UTC  

If they predict results then that is something to think about

2018-03-31 23:50:38 UTC  

Yeah he cherry pciked