so it boils down to two women, Warren and Harris. I think there will be talk of Harris being Warren's running mate

All this is assuming Sanders and Biden don't run though, right?

Late April and May:

New York: Harris, but not as much of a disparity as in 2016 where Hillary had 58% and Sanders had 42%
Connecticut: Warren by a little bit
Delaware: same as New York
Pennsylvania: neck and neck, Harris at a slight lead
Rhode Island: Warren by quite a bit
Indiana: Warren by a little bit
Guam: Harris by a little bit
West Virginia: Warren by quite a bit
Kentucky: neck and neck
Oregon: Warren by quite a bit

Warren becomes the presumptive nominee, and I think she probably offers the VP slot to Harris at this point

@Walter Johnson yes, all this is assuming Biden and Sanders aren't running (old age or in the ground)

actually...assuming Warren hasn't gotten enough delegates yet by this point yet...hmm

June Contests

Virgin Islands: Harris by quite a bit
Puerto Rico: Harris by a little bit
California: Harris by quite a bit...maybe by a borderline landslide
Montana: Warren by a little bit
New Jersey: Harris by quite a bit, especially if she has Booker's endorsement
New Mexico: Harris by a little bit
South Dakota: neck and neck
District of Columbia: Harris by a landslide

hmm, so I'm not sure. I gotta see what the exact numbers are

I'm basing this all off of the Hillary vs Sanders results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#March_1,_2016:_Super_Tuesday

>2,382 delegate votes needed to win

so....

let's see if Warren has the numbers

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination

I'll estimate

Iowa: 25 delegates
New Hampshire: 18 delegates
Nevada: 19 delegates
South Carolina: 14 delegates

Alabama: 9 delegates
American Samoa: 2 delegates
Arkansas: 11 delegates
Colorado: 45 delegates
Georgia: 30 delegates
Massachusetts: 80 delegates
Minnesota: 70 delegates
Oklahoma: 25 delegates
Tennessee: 23 delegates
Texas: 70 delegates
Vermont: 15 delegates
Virginia: 36 delegates

btw, my reasoning is

-I think Sanders might endorse Warren before deciding not to run or leaving this plane of existence
-everyone other than Warren might be seen as another version of Hillary, except younger and with darker skin
-everyone other than Warren might split the vote

so I'd be betting on Warren, assuming all of that

Sanders and Biden have given a lot of signals that they're going to run

Florida: 76 delegates
Illinois: 80 delegates
Kansas: 27 delegates
Lousiana: 15 delegates
Maine: 19 delegates
Michigan: 77 delegates
Mississippi: 6 delegates
Missouri: 37 delegates
Nebraska: 19 delegates
North Carolina: 50 delegates
North Mariana Islands: 3 delegates
Ohio: 67 delegates

So that would complicate things

@Walter Johnson yeah, but they're really old

maybe they still run, but this scenario assumes they don't for simplicity

so is Warren

Warren

>Born: June 22, 1949 (age 69 years), Oklahoma City, OK

hmm, I suppose so

I mean, she'd at least be younger than Trump

Yeah even if they run they would have a big dissadvantage

maybe Booker and Harris can play their youth as a strength

since they're FUCKING WHITE MALES!!!!

(yes I know Sanders sorta isn't white)

@Walter Johnson I mean, I thought Trump and Hillary were borderline too old

I honestly want more Gen X'ers and Millennials

Alaska: 16 delegates

Arizona: 36 delegates
Democrats Abroad: 11 delegates
Hawaii: 19 delegates
Idaho: 20 delegates
Utah: 29 delegates
Washington: 77 delegates
Wisconsin: 55 delegates
Wyoming: 9 delegates

ok, let me tally the numbers so far

ok so Warren has 492 delegates after Super Tuesday, and is the frontrunner by that point. Let me do more math

ok, so after all those states, the final count for warren is 1224 delegates

now..." An extra 716 unpledged delegates (712 votes) or "superdelegates", including party leaders and elected officials, were appointed by the party leadership independently of the primaries' electoral process."

I'm not sure how many of those Warren would get

New York: 120 delegates
Connecticut: 29 delegates
Delaware: 11 delegates
Maryland: 39 delegates
Pennsylvania: 95 delegates
Rhode Island: 15 delegates
Indiana: 47 delegates
Guam: 5 delegates
West Virginia: 20 delegates
Kentucky:30 delegates
Oregon: 40 delegates

so after all that, Warren is at 1675. If you add the 716 superdelegates on top of that, she's over the edge. Maybe they support her to avoid another 2016