Message from @🎃Boo-ton🎃
Discord ID: 414261324504367124
i'm not to sure how valuable the PA-18 race will be as an indicator for November,
there will be sizeable shift for the Dems regardless, simply because Murphy, who was popular among the general population, is not on the ballot
it's difficult to say just how conservative PA-18 really is,
because the district is relatively recently drawn
let's take a look to see how Trump performed here,
okay,
according to the data, Trump won here by a 10-20% margin,
which represents its voting habit in a neutral environment (without Murphy on the ballot, being popular and all)
it's definitely not the most pro-GOP area of the state,
but it's not like Georgia-6 (suburban, college-educated),
so assuming Trump can energize voters here, the GOP candidate (name escapes me) should be fine
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 the issue is that the Democrat candidate, Lamb, is doing a grassroots, door-to-door campaign and a good looking guy
Conor Lamb campaigns like how every GOP candidate should campaign
if Moore campaigned like he did, Doug Jones would have gotten BTFO
If an incumbent leaves in a scandalous position, their party will be weaker in the next election, look at Al Franken's seat, it's considered vulnerable, hell, back in '06, it turned out the congressman in my district was a pedophile and a dem won for the first time since 1993 in the area.
FL-16 btw
yeah, that is a problem, though the GOP still has the advantage in the race
it can all get better
unless,
I do hope Saccone doesn't sit on his ass and expect a win just because of that though
*shudder*
or...
he gets accused of being one
didn't Moore's accusations happen a month before the race?
If it does happen in PA-18, it should be any day now
unless they're going to do it a week before
I've always thought that such accusations would be better timed if they occured a few days before the election, rather than a month
Pussygate happened a month before the election, Moore's pedo scandal happened a month before the election
Trump won, and Moore could have won if he actually put real effort into the campaign
Yeah Lamb's chances are looking good
Saccone needs to do something
Even then, Lamb's ideals aren't as bad as they could be
he seems moderate in all forms
which I caqn get behind
if Saccone campaigned in a grassroots, door to door fashion like Lamb is doing, he would BTFO Lamb
the reason Democrats can win in 'safe red' districts is because
1. In special elections, turnout is much lower
2. Someone who does door-to-door grassroots campaigns can get enough voters such that, even if a district is 90% GOP and 10% Democrat, they can get 9% from the Democrat percentage and trounce the Republican if they only get 8%
the same things applies to Republicans running in 'safe blue' districts
This is what I've been saying for a long time, in electoral politics, there is no such thing as high and dry
If you try hard enough and the opponent slacks enough, any state can be won
the thing is, I'm waiting for ayeexeye to make that wordpress blog
so that there's something to show off