The forecast I gave is up to date, i.e it was released a few hours ago.

“As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.”

Did you read the FAQ section about their margin of error?

I mean, it’s definitely one data point in an argument, I’m not saying it’s meaningless, but it’s not necessarily an accurate representation of what will happen

The MOE is 0.56

> I mean, it’s definitely one data point in an argument, I’m not saying it’s meaningless, but it’s not necessarily an accurate representation of what will happen
True, but it's better than nothing.

Normally this thing is underestimating growth anyways.

So how does that program factor in the slowdown caused by people missing work and not spending as much?

Not sure how the math works, but it factors in the economic situation.

My point is, maybe that model does well for predicting how current trends would continue, ceteris peribus, but it might not work so well at predicting how those trends would be changed by sudden, unpredictable events, like 60 million workers getting sick and needing to stay home from their jobs

It takes into account PCE and all else.

Ok? We don’t even know what that will be if that many people get sick. It’s reasonable to assume that consumption will decline, but it’s impossible to say by how much for sure

Obviously, it's a forecast.

As it stands the forecast doesn't expect any reduction in growth.

biden 2020

bernie is officially never going to be president. he will be 83 or something by the next election

Trump is the MAN

with the PLAN

uncle tomp

>We want open borders. Let everyone in! It's the compassionate thing to do!
>Omg, it's Trump's fault the Virus is here and spreading, he should have closed our borders sooner!

.

Bunch of people who have no expertise whatsoever in virology predicting the economy is going to collapse. You know why? Because they *hope* it collapses. You know why? Because Fuck Trump, that's why.

Trump gay

did bernie flip flop on sanctuary cities?

@qwasi coronavirus can’t really be stopped by a border containment strategy. And if it could, that strategy has already failed.

Here’s a financial times article about why the US is particularly vulnerable to coronavirus https://www.ft.com/content/00017d02-5f39-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

Here’s a thread that outlines the math around coronavirus spread: https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=21

As well as hospital bed shortage and some of the economic impact

I recognize that these sources don’t align with what Trump has said. That is because trump lies regularly.

He recently said that the US would be “close to zero” cases soon

This is not a political issue, it’s atrocious that you’re treating it like one. We are woefully unprepared for the spread of coronavirus, and that lack of preparation will lead to significant disruptions to our way of life, suffering and death.

I have sources and math for everything I just stated. This is serious, we all need to be on the same team here.

Cringe, Covid is hardly a threat.

It would have been if it was a deadly virus, it isn't.

The experts and math disagree with your uninformed take.

In other news, looks like trump literally peed his pants today

@sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ if 1.98 million people died in America, do you think that would be a threat?

To the economy? Probably not.

Lol

So first of all, that’s insane.

And shows a deep lack of understanding about extended order economies