Message from @sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ
Discord ID: 685563980504498184
> We’re talking about the future
How long? As Summer comes this virus will cease to exist.
Who is predicting that GDP growth rate? Because the Fed was predicting a slowing of the GDP growth before any of this started
As shown in the graph the projections have actually *risen*.
“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.” For what it’s worth
It's a model by Atlanta Fed
Official as in government data, i.e it's just a projection by the fed.
This is from Nov
It’s also had experts look at it and adjust it, rather than just being the results of a math formula
Forecasting isn't just a "math formula", it's examined by "experts" too.
Economists of Atlanta Fed work on GDPNOW.
The forecast I gave is up to date, i.e it was released a few hours ago.
“As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.”
Did you read the FAQ section about their margin of error?
I mean, it’s definitely one data point in an argument, I’m not saying it’s meaningless, but it’s not necessarily an accurate representation of what will happen
The MOE is 0.56
> I mean, it’s definitely one data point in an argument, I’m not saying it’s meaningless, but it’s not necessarily an accurate representation of what will happen
True, but it's better than nothing.
Normally this thing is underestimating growth anyways.
So how does that program factor in the slowdown caused by people missing work and not spending as much?
My point is, maybe that model does well for predicting how current trends would continue, ceteris peribus, but it might not work so well at predicting how those trends would be changed by sudden, unpredictable events, like 60 million workers getting sick and needing to stay home from their jobs
It takes into account PCE and all else.
Ok? We don’t even know what that will be if that many people get sick. It’s reasonable to assume that consumption will decline, but it’s impossible to say by how much for sure
Obviously, it's a forecast.
As it stands the forecast doesn't expect any reduction in growth.
biden 2020
bernie is officially never going to be president. he will be 83 or something by the next election
Trump is the MAN
with the PLAN
uncle tomp
>We want open borders. Let everyone in! It's the compassionate thing to do!
>Omg, it's Trump's fault the Virus is here and spreading, he should have closed our borders sooner!
.
Bunch of people who have no expertise whatsoever in virology predicting the economy is going to collapse. You know why? Because they *hope* it collapses. You know why? Because Fuck Trump, that's why.
Trump gay
did bernie flip flop on sanctuary cities?
@qwasi coronavirus can’t really be stopped by a border containment strategy. And if it could, that strategy has already failed.
Here’s a financial times article about why the US is particularly vulnerable to coronavirus https://www.ft.com/content/00017d02-5f39-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4
Here’s a thread that outlines the math around coronavirus spread: https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=21
As well as hospital bed shortage and some of the economic impact
I recognize that these sources don’t align with what Trump has said. That is because trump lies regularly.