Message from @Sophie
Discord ID: 685516027219673089
@abby_ella haha there won’t be a recession. Supply chains are designed to be resistant to exogenous shocks, it’s not enough to create a downturn.
The stock market will continue to be volatile but I’m sure the drops are finished
Wait, you mean to tell me the world, as we know it, isn't going to end because of Coronavirus?
Yeah I mean it’s not like Ebola. Most people survive, it’s the elderly and weak immune systems that are dying
@sɪᴅɪsɴᴏᴛʜᴇʀᴇ We’ll see soon, I guess. Either way, prepare for rising inflation
Nah it won’t be anything drastic
The financial impact will be far greater than Ebola
The problem is not deaths, it’s massive hospital overcrowding and insurance use, and huge drops in retail and service
Honestly if you think this is all going to just blow over and be cool, you have not been paying attention to the numbers coming out of the WHO
There are about 925k staffed hospital beds in the US
If there’s a 40% transmission rate
That’s problem for sure. The supply shock will come from those who need those hospital beds, plus all the additional people who don’t need a hospital stay but have to miss work
With a 19% hospitalization rate (per WHO)
That’s 24.8m hospitalizations
Does a 40% transmission rate mean that 40% of people will get the virus?
Total hospital admissions in a year in the US are about 36m
Yes
Admittedly bombastic title but:
So there are 159 million full- and part-time workers in the US. So that’s 63.6 million sick workers. Granted, it’s likely that they won’t all be sick at the same time, but that’s going to have an economic effect
And people staying home and not patronizing those businesses
40-70% is the projected infection rate
69% increase in hospital utilization
So conservatively like $125bn in hospital costs?
Probably closer to 200bn
The raw averages say 248bn
@Sophie Have you not seen the jobs report?
Coronavirus shouldn't impact the economy much
Uuuuuh
You mean the jobs report from when there wasn’t coronavirus?
Honestly, I don’t know why you’re clinging to this as a partisan issue
Obviously this is going to impact the economy
The fed cut rates in preparation, Trump is considering tax relief
The government certainly thinks it’s going to affect the economy
Job reports from last month?
We’re not looking at last month, we’re looking towards next month
Possibly a slow down, but still the impact wouldn't be "much"
I was expecting a slowdown in the jobs report but we didn't see it, which changed my views.
February won't reflect the impact of COVID. We'll see the impacts going forward.
But believe what you want to believe. This is unprecedented so we don't know anything. Time will tell.