Message from @Scribblehatch
Discord ID: 483912383396577280
There's numerous models being run with different emphasis (some being based on things other than polls like economic and political indicators (fundamental analysis) ) that put things at about +8
And the polls seem to be about +8.
There's numerous videos of the 2016 elections of smug expressions being wiped over the course of 6 hours.
The recent election in special election in Ohio is an R+8 district and that was dead even.
Giddy excitement turned into cold sweat.
And you trust the polls
That it happened once in the past does not ensure it happens again.
The same thing everyone trusted at the time.
WHAT'S CHANGED
**WHAT HAS CHANGED**
Well for one, the pollsters are being more careful.
Tell me what incredibly genius measures have been set in place since then
Tell me.
Last time I remember the polilng was saying 95+% in favor of a Hillary win.
Oh they're more careful. They don't step on the sidewalk cracks anymore.
Good for them.
9_6
Which actually crosses the line into the "never trust a unanimous consensus" territory.
HOW are they more careful.
Well for one, no one is putting odds above 80% without lots of evidence to back it up.
And most are closer to something like 538 in 2016.
Around 60%.
How much is lots of.
Which was widely criticized at the time.
Months of consistent polls.
And are you just taking people's word on it?
Lots of independent models.
OK. What makes you think it's all wrong.
Have you, as a person, ever been polled for something like that?
I've never been polled.
No. But I've done poll work so I know how easily you can manipulate things if that's where you're going.
How many people have you met in your life that have been polled?
But polling in the US is reasonably good.
How are we so certain these pollsters don't just hang around shopping malls?
Well for one, I get the phone calls.
But I rarely answer those calls.
The bias in phone responses tends to over-emphasize the elderly.
For that reason.
Not an argument.