Message from @Scribblehatch

Discord ID: 483912061152395267


2018-08-28 08:11:41 UTC  

The polling is pretty consistently +8

2018-08-28 08:11:42 UTC  

Commies are red not blue 🤔

2018-08-28 08:11:50 UTC  

where + is pro-democrat.

2018-08-28 08:11:51 UTC  

```The polling is pretty consistently +8```
Idiocy crystallized.

2018-08-28 08:11:57 UTC  

You mean to tell me

2018-08-28 08:12:01 UTC  

That after the election we just had

2018-08-28 08:12:03 UTC  

YOU TRUST THE POLLS

2018-08-28 08:12:04 UTC  

>quoting with code blocks

2018-08-28 08:12:11 UTC  

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR FUCKING **GOURD** SIR

2018-08-28 08:12:12 UTC  

How is it idiocy? It's the consistent trend we've seen in the special elections.

2018-08-28 08:12:25 UTC  

```
YOU TRUST THE POLLS
```

2018-08-28 08:12:55 UTC  

There's numerous models being run with different emphasis (some being based on things other than polls like economic and political indicators (fundamental analysis) ) that put things at about +8

2018-08-28 08:13:01 UTC  

And the polls seem to be about +8.

2018-08-28 08:13:15 UTC  

There's numerous videos of the 2016 elections of smug expressions being wiped over the course of 6 hours.

2018-08-28 08:13:18 UTC  

The recent election in special election in Ohio is an R+8 district and that was dead even.

2018-08-28 08:13:25 UTC  

Giddy excitement turned into cold sweat.

2018-08-28 08:13:29 UTC  

And you trust the polls

2018-08-28 08:13:34 UTC  

That it happened once in the past does not ensure it happens again.

2018-08-28 08:13:37 UTC  

The same thing everyone trusted at the time.

2018-08-28 08:13:43 UTC  

WHAT'S CHANGED

2018-08-28 08:13:46 UTC  

**WHAT HAS CHANGED**

2018-08-28 08:13:56 UTC  

Well for one, the pollsters are being more careful.

2018-08-28 08:13:58 UTC  

Tell me what incredibly genius measures have been set in place since then

2018-08-28 08:14:02 UTC  

Tell me.

2018-08-28 08:14:14 UTC  

Last time I remember the polilng was saying 95+% in favor of a Hillary win.

2018-08-28 08:14:15 UTC  

Oh they're more careful. They don't step on the sidewalk cracks anymore.

2018-08-28 08:14:18 UTC  

Good for them.

2018-08-28 08:14:26 UTC  

9_6

2018-08-28 08:14:35 UTC  

Which actually crosses the line into the "never trust a unanimous consensus" territory.

2018-08-28 08:14:36 UTC  

HOW are they more careful.

2018-08-28 08:14:57 UTC  

Well for one, no one is putting odds above 80% without lots of evidence to back it up.

2018-08-28 08:15:02 UTC  

Lots of?

2018-08-28 08:15:09 UTC  

And most are closer to something like 538 in 2016.

2018-08-28 08:15:13 UTC  

Around 60%.

2018-08-28 08:15:21 UTC  

How much is lots of.

2018-08-28 08:15:22 UTC  

Which was widely criticized at the time.

2018-08-28 08:15:31 UTC  

Months of consistent polls.

2018-08-28 08:15:35 UTC  

And are you just taking people's word on it?

2018-08-28 08:15:37 UTC  

Lots of independent models.

2018-08-28 08:15:49 UTC  

OK. What makes you think it's all wrong.

2018-08-28 08:15:56 UTC  

Have you, as a person, ever been polled for something like that?