@Deleted User MT Treasurer believes FL-GOV is the purest of pure tossups (he recognizes DeSantis to be a weak candidate), so it should be Lean R. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300146.msg6383513#msg6383513

in my humble opinion, the biggest thing holding DeSantis back is his utter lack of charisma

he should take acting classes

@Nuke Arizona isn't West Virginia

and Sinema is genuinely moderate

almost as much as Manchin

yup

niiiiiiiiiiiice

best map ever

the wall is about as popular as Trump

meaning it's not a winning issue per se in the general election (it is among the Republican base; I certainly support it)

IDK about the popularity of Planned Parenthood

requiring insurers to throw $$$ on birth control is certainly VERY popular

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2014&f=0&off=61&elect=0

abortion is, I believe, fairly unpopular in AZ

that's a real divide between the candidates

but it's very much a partisan issue

I actually think an open race between McSally and Sinema in West Virginia would result in a very easy McSally win

it'd be a tossup in Ohio

Michigan and Arizona would be Safe D with such candidates

McSally would win in AL by 10-15 given AL-SEN 2017 like conditions

that's very normal for states with high Hispanic populations

because Hispanics tend not to turn out much in primaries

the important thing is to look at the swing from 2014

and AZ has closed primaries, so tougher to figure out turnout with them due to RINOs and DINOs

in 2014, Republicans cast 93% more votes than Dems in the gubernatorial primary

that number for this year is 29% more votes than Dems

that's a pretty big pro-Dem swing

no doubt whatsoever

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 yup

most competitive Senate races:

1. Florida

2. Missouri

3. Indiana

4. Montana

5. North Dakota

6. West Virginia

@[Lex] I think it's in the order of competitiveness

hm

maybe

ok; I'll switch those around

polling has been sparse there

@Rhodesiaboo they were kinda accurate in AL-SEN 2017

polling is kind of a cop out tho

@Rhodesiaboo I mean there have been errors: overrating Dems in GA-06; underrating them in Virginia

overrating Hillary Clinton in the swing states in 2016

y/y

Trump should not abandon Kavanaugh

it would be very foolish of him to

it's very, very obvious that the accusation against him's false

@thr33 yeah; Enten sucks

I do find those CNN polls D-friendly

but by no means impossible

cf., Alabama

which still haunts me

there's no good reason for Moore to have lost

Richard Shelby and Donald Trump won AL by respectable margins

@PiT how'd u get here?

@fhtagn same for you

lol

why did @fhtagn help you???

she's not even that Republican!

I'm just surprised

lol

?

Brat's good @fhtagn