but anyone in that area is bound to have seen Saccone signs eventually. The people stealing them are fucking retarded. Good for us, I guess

I don't know. Democrats are known for lacking foresight

@Deleted User Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan traveling to PA-18 to campaign for Saccone

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 is he well liked?

the election is exactly a week from now

there's a lot of potency for change

Saccone might have just been saving energy until the last couple weeks to make his series of live appearances

i think he's one of the better GOPs in Congress

would be better if someone from Pennsylvania was campaigning for him tho

Tim Ryan is a democrat, the fuck

He's one of the dems that let an illegal have his seat during SOTU

what

are you sure

Tim Ryan is also anti-Pelosi.

crap

But yes, he's a Democrat.

nvm he's campaiging for Lamb nvm

Shiit

I tend to trust Monmouth University more than anyone else

Monmouth has a reasonable-looking poll

.The only other one that looks OK is Emerson.

The following are the only polls you should trust on a individual level:

ABC/Wash Post,

Monmouth University

Seltzer & Company

Field Research Corporation

Anyone want to edit this to be explicitly pro-Saccone?

Or got any ideas to do so?

Or pics to attach to it

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 isn't there supposed to be a Gravis poll today?

we'll see

How do you guys like this?

Conor Lamb is most susceptible to the Pro-Choice angle

You mean telling people he supports billions of dollars in financing for people's "choices"?

It's fucked man

This is the issue I have with social liberalism, they go "muh victimless crime" to excuse this dumb shit when the taxpayers have to foot the bill.

It's like they literally take "muh victimless crime" and go "AND NOT ONE STEP TOWARDS VICTIMLESS CRIME"

"Why not legalize gay marriage?" -> "YOU HAVE TO BAKE THE FUCKING CAKE"

i believe that's called the slippery slope

yep

idk why people call it a fallacy in most cases, progressivism is literally the slippery slope as an ideology

the right does this too to be fair

"we only want to ban abortion after twenty weeks"

I'm pro-life, btw

our issue is we never get our slice of the cake

bingo

that's the main problem with conservatism

The Left realizes that there's a slippery slope to banning abortion when we ban partial-birth abortion and this is the de facto only argument in favor of it.

if one ideology is 'stop' and the other is 'go' then the ideology that believes in 'go' will always get their way when they are put into power while the 'stop' ideology can only maintain the status quo

Only 10% of Leftists actually support PBA

But effectively 100% of them vote against it

The only reason that the slippery slope isn't a "fallacy" for abortion is that we actually openly say we'll ban abortion as a whole.

"On Tuesday, March 13th, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will go to the polls in what has become the highest profile special election since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in December. Gravis Marketing has released their third and final poll in this race. The Likely voter poll, conducted March 1st-5th, shows the race continuing to tighten into a toss-up. The poll uses the same demographic model as the previous two Gravis Marketing polls of the race.

The State Representative Rick Saccone now leads former assistant U.S. Attorney Connor Lamb 45%-42%. The previous poll in February had Saccone up 45%-40%, and the first poll in January showed Saccone up 46%-34%. The race has undeniably tightened as Saccone’s support has been frozen in the 45%-46% range while Lamb’s support has climbed from 34% to 42%. While Saccone remains the favorite to win this race, there is a clear path to victory for Lamb. 13% of likely voters remain undecided.

Saccone is currently pulling 4% of Clinton voters while Lamb is taking 13.1% of Trump voters. Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a slight hit in the district over the three polls showing only a slight trend downward from 54%-39% in January to 49%-42% in the first week of March. Governor Wolf has remained stable and currently sits at 33%-47% in the district. Senator Casey’s numbers have also remained static and are currently at 33%-38%."

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/07/gravis-marketing-final-pa-cd18-special-election-poll-results/

This trend has continued I'm told since the map was made

@Den Yeah, though those Rep voters would still be susceptible to candidates like Lamb

will the Democrats be able to field more candidates like Lamb for November ?

Some, probably

hopefully we'll field our fair share as well

I really don't think it will matter if they field someone like Lamb in the Midterms. I think Lamb might win because it's going to be very low turnout.

To a point of course.

@Den the thing is, there seems to be a lot of attention on this race

I expect turnout to be higher than typical special elections, at the very least

It's just such a small percentage of people are going to vote the Radicalized Democrats I think are going to make up a big chunk of them.

http://www.politicspa.com/raba-research-poll-lamb-48-saccone-44/86802/

No way do that many people disapprove of Trump in this district

@Den it's sample is off

it overrepresents college-educated voters

Well I told everyone I work with who lives in the district to vote.

@Den your thoughts on Saccone's chances so far ?

I think it could go either way. Saccone isn't doing shit. I know an old guy who volunteers a lot. He said if they got the names of all the Republcians in his neighborhood that he would put signs in their yard and the campaign never got back to him for example

wow

I saw Saccone actually making more appearances on his FB

on the bright side, more Saccone signs won't really do much past a certain point

I'm sure the race is getting a lot of attention in that area, correct me if I'm wrong

how many adults are talking about it in real life? Most of them?

None of them really.

Every TV and internet commercial is it. And for every Lamb at there are about 2 Saccone adds. And my mailbox is full of Saccone fliers

but they must be noticing those commercials though, right ?

I'm guessing it's partly that they keep politics to themselves

Yes I think so. I plan on trying to make the Trump Ralley tomorrow

nice, tell us how it goes

@Den if you can, try to speak with one of Trump's aides

How do I do that?

i assumed you'd have some sort of connection, but okay. the motivation is to try to find out Trump's strategy for 2018.

also,

PA-18 demographics: @Deleted User @FLanon @Den

low turnout would be good for Saccone

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 why do you say that

@Den I think it'll be higher than it usually would though

given all the attention and $

low turnout always benefits Republicans

with few exceptions

especially when you compare it to elections in Obama days

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 not always though, I think in red districts like this one, if you appeal to enough independents while retaining your Democrat base, you can win

like Doug Jones in Alabama

if R voters don't turn out

now...they probably will turn out in PA-18 unlike Alabama because there's no GOP backstabbing

that's why i said exceptions,

the question is,

yeah, I think this might be an exception, which isn't good

although let's see what effect Trump showing up will give

how will he perform in the Southern Pittsburgh suburbs in Allegheny county?

Saccone will win in the Washington, Greene, and Westmoreland county parts of the district, no question

sure, but Lamb seems to be making grassroots campaigns there. That's a concern. Now...I wonder what he's actually like in person

<@&414477865153724416> I wonder if there will be another poll right before Tuesday

to measure if there was any impact

of course, hopefully it gets properly sampled

there's a Monmouth poll coming Monday

hmm

has there been a Monmouth poll about this race yet

yes

Saccone leading

Hold tight PA.

Long lines ? That's a great sign

He gets crowds

That's how he rolls.

We need Saccone to win, more than with Moore, more than with Gillespie, because Trump is doing what needs to be done in November. Campaigning and Tariffs.

yeah, unlike the Gillespie and Moore races, this is a real bellwether for how the midterms will look like

the Virginia race was skewed because Gillespie rejected Trump, the Alabama race was skewed because of the pedo shit

this race seems like a more normal special election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTWx42YMkbA

@FLanon are you watching

there's this Italian guy with a thick accent from Allegheny County rn

nevermind he's from Greece

TARIFFS WALLS BANS

I'm in my way to rally

Hope line isn't too long

I hope the line is very long :D

holy shit

the lady speaking right now is the RNC chair

Ahhh I waited too long. I'm all stressed

Is she any good?

I can't watch, I'm too nervous >.>

Maybe.

C'mon Republicans

Make Nacy's Little Lamb burn

Handel is a better speaker than I would have thought

lol this is a great rally

>CNN SUCKS

Yep xD

Yeee

I can't find a parking space. All the parking spaces of the nearby buildings are taken. There has to be 100,000 people here

Maybe not that much but there are more then I thought there would be

@Den 100,000 sounds like a great number

what do you think of Saccone's chances now

A LOT better

They are saying it's full and people were walking back but I am staying in line just in case

have you ever been to a Trump rally before ?

Protesters

hmm, is 10,000 a large amount for a rally

10k, jesus

If saccone doesn't win after that

There's definiely enthusiasm though, which is important

That's what I'm worried about.

No actual PA-18 people.

He's visible

This is important, Trump supporters in the district will be more energized to turn out

Saccone needs to win this.

Or else we'll hear LEL BLUE TSUNAMI

for weeks on end

That's not the worst part of losing this

The worst part would be the fact that we're doing everything right

Trump's rallying for him, which he should in November.

If Trump sees a win in this category and a loss in AL and VA, he'll naturally come to the conclusion that "rallies win elections"

But, if he sees a loss in all 3, he won't know what to think.

Alabama was a smear campaign.

Virginia was an establishment candidate.

That's why this is important, we can get over the blue wave taunting, but strategy is what matters.

Pennsylvania was the best Democrat candidate vs. an incompetent Republican force

@Pielover19 both of which may have been solved if Trump campaigned in those states.

Yup.

Still salty after the Roy Moore loss. Everyone bought into the smear campaign, and he just took it lying down.

Live appearances are what matters, Trump had a rally in Florida before the election, he didn't campaign for Moore, if he did, I'm 100% sure he would've won.

He should've campaigned in AL

Steel!

@Den yeah, there should be a lot of PA-18 people though

As for VA, that's less certain, more blue, less close, but still, he may have won if Trump campaigned there.

how many people did you talk to ?

The bantz!

>SLEEPY EYED SON OF A BITCH

lol don't crash

or get another ticket and have to see that guy again

so he would have been even better than Saccone ?

wish I could have seen it

I'm a bit busy atm, I'll rewatch it

Hopefully this doesn't hurt.

@Den yeah, there must have been a shit ton of people from PA-18

KEEP AMERICA GREAT

>Lamb the Sham

fucking legend

Handsome Rick Saccone

LMFAO

he said he's slightly better looking than Lamb

and he's slightly older

Trump has amazing charisma.

>here's the problem, he talks nice, he's not going to vote for us, he's going to vote the party line
nail on the fucking head

Spread that.

lol

I'm looking forward to the next poll as much as @🎃Boo-ton🎃 is now

This speech is exactly what this district needed.

I think it's a win

Tarrifs, immigration, tax cuts.

it'll definitely be a bailout, but that shows the right message to the WH

Strong points of the Trump administration.

LOU

LOU

he just gave a shout out to Lou Barletta just now

@FLanon yeah, I hope we see a marked improvement

it would teach Republicans the lesson they need to learn

Button must be very happy for this speech.

All of the points he thinks the RNC should cover, he's covering!

This is why shifting the core is so damned important, we have to get away from this gay shit about free trade and compassionate conservatism and get to America First.

GAS GAS GAS

I

'M GONNA RUN AS A FLASH

Try to get the amish to turn out too

Amazing rally!

that was great lol

THe part when he pretended to act presidential

Gold

Trump never pretended to act Presidential.

Trump, being the President, is the _living definition_ of the word "Presidential".

@Den can you describe what you know about the encircled area?

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/03/12/poll-pennsylvania-special-election-454909

PA why

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

I believe that's Mount Lebanon. It's were Connor Lamb is from. It's wealthy and very densely populated. Like the district doesn't have school busses everyone just walks and their elementary school is "Open Campus". Both those things are insane to me

That is the Middle of the circle

The rest of its Middle Class suburbs

http://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1520/87/1520877637286.jpg

Any of you fags up near Erie @here

"
PA Anon here. Some reminders from someone who's more in touch with what's going on:

>Saccone is a garbage, shitty Jeb-tier candidate, a GOPe relic and terrible politician
>Lamb's success almost entirely comes from ignoring Democrat orthodoxy and focusing on the greivances of the white working class (mainly opioids and labor issues) instead of the whole FUCK TRUMP AND FUCK WHITE PEOPLE nonsense

If Lamb wins tomorrow, it doesn't mean anything for any sort of "blue wave" or have any sort of implication for Trump's presidency. This election is almost entirely divorced from what's going on at a federal level and using it to suggest any sort of pattern is batshit retarded. People who wanna blackpill over a Lamb victory are either morons or shills, if not both. "

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/163696464/#163697673

SAY IT WITH ME

BLUE 🌊

BLUE 🌊

do we have a storm emoticon

WE WILL MAKE THEIR BLUE WAVE FALTER IN OUR

<:redstorm2:422879581851222026>

BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS

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