"On Tuesday, March 13th, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will go to the polls in what has become the highest profile special election since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in December. Gravis Marketing has released their third and final poll in this race. The Likely voter poll, conducted March 1st-5th, shows the race continuing to tighten into a toss-up. The poll uses the same demographic model as the previous two Gravis Marketing polls of the race.

The State Representative Rick Saccone now leads former assistant U.S. Attorney Connor Lamb 45%-42%. The previous poll in February had Saccone up 45%-40%, and the first poll in January showed Saccone up 46%-34%. The race has undeniably tightened as Saccone’s support has been frozen in the 45%-46% range while Lamb’s support has climbed from 34% to 42%. While Saccone remains the favorite to win this race, there is a clear path to victory for Lamb. 13% of likely voters remain undecided.

Saccone is currently pulling 4% of Clinton voters while Lamb is taking 13.1% of Trump voters. Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a slight hit in the district over the three polls showing only a slight trend downward from 54%-39% in January to 49%-42% in the first week of March. Governor Wolf has remained stable and currently sits at 33%-47% in the district. Senator Casey’s numbers have also remained static and are currently at 33%-38%."

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/07/gravis-marketing-final-pa-cd18-special-election-poll-results/

This trend has continued I'm told since the map was made

@Den Yeah, though those Rep voters would still be susceptible to candidates like Lamb

will the Democrats be able to field more candidates like Lamb for November ?

Some, probably

hopefully we'll field our fair share as well

I really don't think it will matter if they field someone like Lamb in the Midterms. I think Lamb might win because it's going to be very low turnout.

To a point of course.

@Den the thing is, there seems to be a lot of attention on this race

I expect turnout to be higher than typical special elections, at the very least

It's just such a small percentage of people are going to vote the Radicalized Democrats I think are going to make up a big chunk of them.

http://www.politicspa.com/raba-research-poll-lamb-48-saccone-44/86802/

No way do that many people disapprove of Trump in this district

@Den it's sample is off

it overrepresents college-educated voters

Well I told everyone I work with who lives in the district to vote.

@Den your thoughts on Saccone's chances so far ?

I think it could go either way. Saccone isn't doing shit. I know an old guy who volunteers a lot. He said if they got the names of all the Republcians in his neighborhood that he would put signs in their yard and the campaign never got back to him for example

wow

I saw Saccone actually making more appearances on his FB

on the bright side, more Saccone signs won't really do much past a certain point

I'm sure the race is getting a lot of attention in that area, correct me if I'm wrong

how many adults are talking about it in real life? Most of them?

None of them really.

Every TV and internet commercial is it. And for every Lamb at there are about 2 Saccone adds. And my mailbox is full of Saccone fliers

but they must be noticing those commercials though, right ?

I'm guessing it's partly that they keep politics to themselves

Yes I think so. I plan on trying to make the Trump Ralley tomorrow

nice, tell us how it goes

@Den if you can, try to speak with one of Trump's aides

How do I do that?

i assumed you'd have some sort of connection, but okay. the motivation is to try to find out Trump's strategy for 2018.

also,

PA-18 demographics: @Deleted User @FLanon @Den

low turnout would be good for Saccone

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 why do you say that