midterms-discussions
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by the way, what's more important than speculating over polls is taking action
wait
come to think of it, you can speculate over polls all you want, but will that actually change anything?
okay so,
2002: Republicans outperform polls (+2.9)
2006: Democrats underperform polls (-3.6)
2010: Republicans underperform polls (-2.6)
2014: Republicans outperform polls (+3.3)
as long as Democrats aren't leading by 9.4 through 10.4, we should be fine
make no mistake,
the margin of error can swing either way
so even if Democrats are leading only by +3.2, they have a shot
although with 3.2, it's extremely unlikely they can come close to prevailing,
however,
this is the most important factor of all,
**if** by election day,
**if**,
Democrats are leading by 10.5 points,
they **will** flip the house
**100%** chance Democrats flip the house if they are leading the ballot by +10.5
has anyone else here decided to make a fake FB account to see what the masses are discussing when it comes to the midterms?
I've noticed that all the Trump supporter pages are just boomer-tier memes
nothing on the midterms
@Den did you also notice that?
Ron Paul endorses Nick Freitas for the Virginia Senate Seat
hmm
Lemme look this up
"As a sovereign nation, we have an obligation to secure our borders. Our immigration system must be reformed to allow for safe and sensible legal immigration. We cannot allow for processes that do not take into account the best interests of our citizens. The current system has allowed terrorists and criminals to step in front of honest immigrants seeking to assimilate into our society. Nick supports both strengthening our border security and adopting merit-based immigration policies."
Sounds like a good guy to me, he seems like my kind of libertarian.
He may not have as much reach as Stewart, but I'd keep my eye on him.
because of how much leftists are crowing about "muh blue wave," if they lose any of the races in reliably Blue areas like Virginia, that will make things so much sweeter
"The borders are open and the country is 10% white, but at least I never voted for anyone who supports Israel!"
map with every district that Clinton or Trump won and lost within 10% of the vote
Interesting
Why does my state keep running the same Democrats?
Itโs very weird
@Rhodesiaboo it's the same thing for both parties because that's the nature of political office
It takes a hell of a lot of THANKLESS work to run for office
I honestly wish that trump could get a new party created.
But that would never work.
Not in america's system.
which means that the people who have already been politicians for many years tend to be the ones who will go for higher offices
My State has a lot of liberal newspapers
@WildRooHuntingTutorials that'd be a bad idea tbh
Theyโre trying to dumb us down
I know.
What would help is to improve what we've got
It would never work.
Unfortunately if the republican part branded itself as American Nationalist it would scare normies and mainstreamers away.
Yeah
And a large percent of the republican voting base are fiscal conservatives.
I,E centrists.
imagine the ramifications for the midterms if the Seth Rich murder was exposed to the mainstream
SHOTS FIRED IN THE WHITE HOUSE
MAJOR HAPPENING
SUICIDE BY GUN
Oh fuck man that's intense
it's hard to think of a better place to give your suicide attention
With one day left in TX early voting, Dems have cast 45k more ballots than Reps (the first time since 2006). In past cycles, the partisan breakdown of TX primary ballots roughly predicted the split in general elections. Could indicate a close race between Beto & cruz
hmm
early voting though, regular voting for the Texas primaries haven't happened yet
it's still an indicator of Democrat enthusiasm
uh huh
McSally just went live before going into a plane
looks like she likes to highlight her air force background
WASHINGTON โ A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.
Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.
What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?
The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americaโs moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russiaโs meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.
For Mr. Trumpโs opposition, this premise โ to say nothing of the question of whether his campaign conspired with Russia or merely benefited from its manipulations โ has thickened the faint stink of illegitimacy that would hover over any president who lost the popular vote, supercharging policy disagreements into nearly existential threats to democracy. The regular cycles of consternation spun up by Mr. Trumpโs unconventional approach to the job of being president help keep that wound raw.
Despite simmering unrest, there have been only a few extraordinary moments that broke the mold of public stability. Those include peaceful demonstrations, like the post-inaugural womenโs march and the airport protests against Mr. Trumpโs initial ban on travelers from seven Muslim countries. Far more disturbing, they also include the near-fatal shooting of a Republican congressman and several other people at a baseball practice by a man who was furious at Mr. Trump and Republicans, and the spectacle of throngs of white supremacists emboldened by the era to march in Charlottesville, Va. โ culminating in an apparent neo-Nazi sympathizer plowing his car into anti-racist counterprotesters, injuring dozens of people and killing a woman. Fortunately, those two moments of extreme political violence have been exceptions.
For a counterexample of how a time of intense political bitterness can start to tear this country apart, look back exactly half a century to 1968. In that chaotic year, America slashed and clawed at itself amid the assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and the riots that followed; the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy as he ran for president; swelling antiwar demonstrations on college campuses amid growing recognition that the government had been lying about the course of the Vietnam War; and the police beatings of protesters in Chicago outside the Democratic National Convention.
Factors like the draft and the race relations of the period made that tumultuous year a particular historical moment. But one difference between then and now is salient: Arguably, there was little reason to believe that the November 1968 election was likely to provide immediate relief.
We are lucky that so far 2018 does not look like a new 1968. But the relative calm may be like an unexploded bomb, its volatility not so much defused as contained by the thought that Trump Republicans will be punished in the Nov. 6 midterm elections. These expectations are widespread. After the big Democratic special election victories in places handily carried by Mr. Trump in 2016, from Virginia and Alabama to Wisconsin, Republican lawmakers in purple districts are retiring to avoid ending their careers in humiliating defeats.
Democrats, meanwhile, relish visions of a new congressional majority wielding its subpoena power to flay the Trump administration with oversight investigations. They can see it now: Making public Mr. Trumpโs hidden tax returns and otherwise laying bare any financial dealings between foreign governments and his businesses. Inviting the women who have accused him of sexual misconduct to testify at a televised hearing. Unearthing what his appointees have been doing in places like the Environmental Protection Agency, where collection of fines from polluters has plummeted.
Almost taking a House flip for granted, Democrats whisper that a tsunami-level wave would also flip the Senate and stop Mr. Trumpโs assembly line for turning conservative lawyers into life-tenured federal judges. Some even fantasize about impeachment.
Such vivid anticipation steers those sputtering at Mr. Trump's presidency to take deep breaths and bide their time until Nov. 6, which draws closer every day: The 2018 campaign cycle formally starts this week with primary voting in Texas.
But a significant Democratic wave may not materialize. Good economic news, for example, tends to blunt anti-incumbent sentiments. The country is still mostly using House districts that were redrawn after the 2010 census, just as Republicansโ big 2010 midterm wave victory gave them an unusual degree of control over state legislatures. Beyond deliberate partisan gerrymandering, the impact of a Democratic turnout surge would be partly diluted by their votersโ disproportionate concentration in cities, piling up extra votes in districts Republicans would have lost anyway.
But inevitably, many eyes would turn to Russia. It appears to still be covertly spreading disinformation and amplifying tensions on American social media with the intention of having โan impact on the next election cycle,โ Mike Pompeo, the Central Intelligence Agency director, told Congress last month.
Another poll-defying election night surprise, like 2016โs, would further fuel suspicions of unseen manipulation. After all, the public only later found out โ apparently thanks to the National Security Agency contractor Reality Winner, whom the Justice Department is prosecuting for leaking โ that shortly before the 2016 election, Russian hackers infiltrated the servers of an elections systems software supplier and tried to trick 122 state elections officials into downloading malware. While there is no evidence that Russian hackers tampered with Election Day results last time, the government has disclosed that it thinks they probed elections systems in 21 states and penetrated several.
โThere should be no doubt that Russia perceives its past efforts as successful and views the 2018 U.S. midterm elections as a potential target for Russian influence operations,โ Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, recently testified. โThroughout the entire community, we have not seen any evidence of any significant change from last year.โ
Against that backdrop, disappointed Trump opponents will be primed to believe the worst: that Russia rigged two elections in a row for Republicans. And if their anticipatory catharsis and faith in the democratic process evaporates, the anger could seek a different outlet โ in turn risking a backlash from Trump supporters and a downward spiral.
The White Houseโs approach to issues raised by Russian election meddling has been backward-looking, minimizing the problem in a way that seems to preclude focusing on protecting the country from future threats. Preoccupied with defending the legitimacy of the 2016 results, Mr. Trump repeatedly insists not only that his campaign did not collude with Moscow, but also that Russiaโs effort to torque that election was either โa made-up storyโ or had no impact on the outcome. Asked recently whether Mr. Trump has specifically directed the Federal Bureau of Investigation or the N.S.A. to take actions to confront and blunt continuing Russian influence operations, their respective directors testified that the president has not done so.
Intelligence community leaders say their agencies are nevertheless trying to mitigate the risk, helping states strengthen cyberdefenses and hinting at other, classified steps. Such efforts to bolster the credibility of the election system are crucial, but may prove insufficient if there is another expectation-defying result.
Three days after the directorsโ testimony, the Justice Department announced that a grand jury had indicted a group of Russians accused of running the social media manipulation operation. The unsealed indictment quoted internal Russian documents obtained by Robert Mueller, the special counsel. In them, the Russians were said to have described the original stated goal of what they called โinformation warfare against the United States of America,โ before it morphed into helping Mr. Trump win, as spreading mistrust toward โthe American political system in general.โ
This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.
Give us all a tl;dr of this.
>Trump sux and people are mad
>Blue Wave might not happen
>if it doesn't, we can probably blame Russia
t. New York Times
Lol
RED STORM ALERT
RED STORM ALERT
<@&414477865153724416>
DEBATE AT 7PM BETWEEN RICK SACCONE AND CONOR LAMB
TUNE IN
<@&399683356218097667>
<@&401065606306201600>
Lamb still seems robotic to me
oops
I meant to say that Lamb still seems robotic
Saccone seems to have the upper hand so far
oh shit
It seems Lamb is about to capitalize on gun control
he's giving a non-answer to it so far though
"my opponent and I support the 2nd amendment, but the difference is, he supports the removal of background checks. I want UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS."
he just said he's open to raising the age limit
"I support a woman's right to choose...under the law, even though I'm a Catholic, and I oppose abortion."
he said that in response to a question about religion in government
the question wasn't even about abortion
Saccone currently quoting the Bible
also said that religion does have a place in government because the Founding Fathers agreed
how close is this race?
@Deleted User Lamb is good looking, young, and has a grassroots campaign style
so it's closer than it normally would be
it's a heavily Trumpian district
@Den Are you watching this debate?
oh shit
Saccone just said "I'm glad he's not running for cardinal, because he flunked his catechism studies"
Lamb currently sucking Mueller's dick
>heavily Trumpian district
no it isn't
well sorta
+19 Trump vote here
but that doesn't mean they're conservative staunch republicans are anything
hmm
Shareblue?
Facebook does this kind of manipulation all the time from what I've read
They've literally done social experiments where they manipulate the feed of someone and see the effect on their emotional state, I wouldn't trust social media as a litmus test for anything political.
@FLanon Yeah, I remember hearing about that a while back and got pretty disgusted, knowing they probably did it to me
It was a million times worse last week. Go back and look at the older post on Saccones page
@Den Yeah, I know
did you see the debate
Not yet. I will watch it. Look at this ignorant fucker
Look at how fat and disgusting Dans family is
he thicc
These are the mouth breather we are up against here is Dan
"Dan Sainovich looked disgusting--nipples protruding--in his purple shirt before Facebook. Very very disrespectful."
Honestly In a vaccine Lamb wouldn't be that bad. He is basically a moderate Democrat and my friend knows him and says he is really nice. But his Supporters are such assholes I will be really pissed if he wins
These people don't have an inch of personal responsibility.
I'm not for cutting medicaid except in the form of efficiencies, but bitching about muh medicaid while holding a bunch of hot dogs really pisses me off.
Liberals can't be real people. They just can't. It's impossible. I'm really stating to believe that in NPC Theory
Maybe they are just a few lines of source code and some pixels that are designed to have minimal interaction with the player
The #SaveMedicaid crap isn't even about "Medicaid" as you might know it--it's about Obamacare's amendments to it.
Here is another kicker from his profile 1st pic
Ok so get ready for the cut away because this is moving shit
2nd pic..........
Take a look at the upper corner.
He has a pic of that quote and then the next pic it zooms away and it's from that fat bitch from Charlottesville Facebook page
Fucking retards I swear to God!
>DACA expires in just over one day
Good.
no it won't
the courts, remember?
What's the situation with them btw
Temporary extension imposed by SCOTUS
eh, that eventually'll get resolved, it was an executive memo
RIP California
you know, I can't believe I didn't realize until now how much of an impact ICE could have on illegal voters
what if the margins in states like California won't be anywhere near as high as in 2016 ?
@Deleted User Thing is, is that, we need to find 'em and that is equivalent to "finding a needle in the haystack".
Plus we need a dedicated tipping protocol/group that are able to send effective tips.
I wonder if merely the fear of ICE will dissuade them from voting
I.e. a "Reporter Cadre".
I think they will test the limits in the midterms, however, if their tests show that ICE isn't active/cannot get them they will vote.
maybe they don't want to risk getting caught in the midterms
Probably enter the boothing area through "Piggybacking".
meaning they'll lose races they otherwise wouldn't have lost
Know what you mean. I will probably screen for places giving Illegals tips on how to vote.
And report that to ICE.
Since I know a Demo-tard page that gave Illegals tips on DACA.
Very Easy: Texas, Mississippi, Tennesse, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska,
Easy: Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, Missouri
Medium: West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota (Special Election, Tina Smith who replaced Al Franken), Florida, Arizona, Nevada
Hard: Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota (Regular Election - Amy Klobuchar, incumbent for quite a while), Virginia, Maine
Very Hard: California, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Washington, New Mexico, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hawaii
(remember, Very Hard =/= Impossible)
(also, Very Easy =/= impossible to lose)
^what do you guys think of my rankings
if we only win all the Very Easy races....
51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
If we win the Easy races as well
54 Republicans, 46 Democrats
if we win the Medium races as well
60 Republicans, 40 Democrats (filibuster proof at this point but there may be republicucks))
if we win the Hard races as well
65 Republicans, 40 Democrats
if we add the very hard states
77 Republicans, 23 Democrats (lol)
Where's Nevada?
Also, put Wisconsin down to medium. It'll be close like Arizona.
@Pielover19 just put in Nevada. I think it's medium
Tammy Baldwin is a bit of a hard left progressive, so I guess Wisconsin might be medium, especially with a solid candidate
even CNN can see what the black pillers cannot
I've said this multiple times
He knows Congress can't pass a football if it wanted to, so the stuff he's not serious about like muh guns and muh daca gets passed to congress while tariffs and the muslim ban get done executively.
guys just a random question
shoot
did the us lost against Vietnam and if so how?
of course they did
it became commie
ok
how did they lost tho?
the goal was to prevent Vietnam from becoming communist, that goal was not reached and Vietnam became communist
pretty cut and dry
how did it happend tho
we didn't have the will to win it
I'm sure the U.S. I way stronger then Vietnam
all the protesters here at home
shoot the damn hippies
We tried that, it was called Kent State, didn't go over so well
There was a fear that if we invaded North Vietnam that PRC would retaliate and start WWIII, so it was moreso a defense of South Vietnam
We definitely could have won if we did that though
should have massacred the entire north
it was really public relations that cost us the war
wym?
it was very unpopular
all the protesters and Kent State, the people didn't see a reason to stay
especially conscription
I mean I'm really confused about this war
from my perspectives the us did well by killing the commies
We were amazing at it definitely
but from an American civilian idk
in fine with war
we decimated the north vietnam in ratios and all that
I just don't know if I'l support sending troops for a war that aren't ours
but ultimately, the people didn't want it
liberals*
they got their cake, pretty much
the irony is that about 99% of vietnamese now support a free market
It's pretty much "communist" in the same way the PRC is
There was only 1 thing I liked about Cuba
The cars
the cigs
the dead bodys
probably should discuss this stuff in <#409511459844784138> tbh
oh nvm
alright
Yeah
@everyone take a look at this
I saw
Yeah
I know about the Ohio governor race
Can we use blackmail shit during this OP?
I dunno fellow Ohioan
@Deleted User bad idea
Yes
Why is Arthur Jones not /our guy/? lol
a little too far in that direction unfortunately
More of this hopefully
DACA IS DEAD
ROUND THEM UP
MASS DEPORATIONS NOW
haha
I think Trump may finally be starting to get it
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