what is the sauce btw

i collaborated the data myself

ah ok

it's probably better than most polls

the betting percentages had to come from somewhere though, right?

https://electionbettingodds.com/

+3.6% in the last week

so that's good

good night guys

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAXo1Y7AK_I

should we get Bradly Manning the nomination just to fuck up the Dems chances in that election?

yeah

probably would be the best chance of getting that seat in a state that is extremely blue

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156791187#p156794196

lol at this post

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156832254

new thread goys

keep this bumped

@FLanon @Nuke @skankd @TrippyTurtle

kk

half tempted to write a quick site for this stuff, like that guy did with the tax calculator

>tfw I don't think that Chelsea Manning isn't necessarily a bad choice for the US Senate

I think* whelp

I saw an article stating that some of the more centrist dem are bashing it/her

She will prob lose real hard is she runs

Yeah. Most of the Democratic establishment is shilling against her hard.

Even if she wins or loses, as long as she exposes the corrupt elite agenda of the surveillance state, the war crimes committed by the US, etc. I'd say its a win

But realistically speaking, she's going to probably lose to Cardin anyways

It's hard to say, especially with social justice and girl power on every leftie's tongue. Though, its hard to say what the population of Leftist millenial sjw types is in Maryland.

So I've researched and found some projections for the house that are fairly whitepilling

Nice

thanks for the good work

they're from fairvote, a pretty accurate firm from what I've found

http://www.fairvote.org/fairvote_s_projections_for_u_s_house_elections_in_2018

basically, the high confidence projections they have (which from past analyses they've accurately predicted 99.7% of, so it's extremely likely they'll get all of them right bar one or two at most) has 205 R seats and 163 D seats

this gives a field of about 63 seats in competition

218 seats are needed to have a majority, meaning Rs would need to grab at least 13 seats out of the 63 in play in order to keep the house

obviously we want much more than this for legislative purposes, but this effectively prevents any impeachment attempts

Now, if there's a 2006-esque "blue wave" with a similar makeup to that year, w/ 54% dems and 46% Rs, that still gives Rs a majority of 226 seats, at least according to FairVote

this is about 52% of the House of Representatives which would be Republican, or to give a frame of reference, about the same margin that we had in the senate before Moore's loss

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156832254

Not good in my opinion, but not apocalyptic. I think the average House Republican is much more on Trump's side than the average House Democrat (anecdotal, but still my opinion), so Trump would still be able to get some good bills in I assume.

thanks, btw can you bump the thread

yeah, damn

btw don't let these results get you delusional or anything

for all I know, the dems could get a ton more seats than what's considered the "blue wave" in that scenario.

our goals this year are to:
a) maintain the margins in the House, as they're decent at getting legislation passed even with Cuck Ryan.
b) increase the margins in the Senate, as they're the ones effectively blocking legislation from getting passed with a couple Senators
c) maybe get Ryan unseated, as he is a poison pill for Trump's agenda.
The cucks in the senate are already retiring, so we'd also need to make sure to prevent Romney from getting office in Utah.

gotta go, anyways.

have a good night anon, thanks for your work

!!!

Wisconsin State Senate Special Elections TOMORROW

Wisconsin State Senate Special Elections TODAY

how did they turn out

the issue with state legislature elections is that people never really hear about them

which means that they can be gamed quite a bit

with money and get out the vote efforts

they could end up being a very good metric for the federal elections

are there any results yet?

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wisconsin/articles/2018-01-16/jarchow-schachtner-face-off-in-special-senate-election

looks like no results yet

alright, well let's keep the fingers crossed then

just came back from a solid day picking up chicks

let me write up a new general right now

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156959292

bump this thread every so often so it doesn't get slid beyond pg 10

btw @Nuke @TrippyTurtle can one of you bump the thread

thanks

I'm banned atm.

lol, what for

Insulting the mod's waifu

lol get fugged

some news concerning the wisconsin state special election

LINK

http://www.riverfallsjournal.com/news/government-and-politics/4389018-special-election-jarchow-out-early-lead

Jarchow is the R, so this should be good news to come

It's not really important in the sense of needing the seat itself, but it still gives us a bit of an idea as to attitudes

can I get someone else to bump the thread other than me

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

well, we're going to work hard then, aren't we

I don't think you realize how bad this is

Trump won this district by a margin of **57** points

well then

the fact Democrats won here is phenomenal

a *really* bad sign for November

what were the ballotpedia results

definitely not a good sign of things to come as they are, but the thing is the political environment 10 months from now can be radically different]

we 100% should be upping our game

there were 5 special elections today,

Democrats flipped two of these five state legislators

**PROBLEMATIC**

not even blackpilling or shilling,

yeah, we have our work cut out for us

I get it, it's dire

'Schachtner’s victory comes in a district that Harsdorf won by by 26 percentage points in 2016. Trump carried the 10th District by 17 percentage points in 2016.'

we definitely should be having more boots on the ground grassroots campaigns

there is no chance of making it by going on high and dry

there has to be some political event from now and then which changes the circumstances, really.

I refuse to give up hope, sorry.

the GOP holds a majority of 18 - 15 in the Wisconsin State Senate; down from 20 - 13.

we're doing something wrong and need to re-evaluate