somehow they can see stuff that is opposed to each other and see it as supporting their desired outcome

So if someone says the Nazis did it, and the Nazis say they didn't, which one is simpler and thus more right due to occams razor

basic cleaning done, fan is MUCH quieter now

I suppose I am struggling to find a belief held by the same group that uses it and doesn't in another case

The point is to say that "the simplest answer is likely true" just isn't true

It's always used in reference to complex issues

It's fair to use occams razor like "I can't find my keys. Maybe the aliens took them? No, that's too unlikely and complex"

the history channels agrees that it was aliens

The problem with 'the simplest answer is likely true' is that 'likely' can be anywhere from 51% to 99.9~%.

Dr. Peterson talked about how if you were to take a guess between one man and one woman, which would be more violent, you'd be right 60% of the time on the man and 40% of the time on the woman.

So even though it's 'likely' that a man is the more violent out of the two it's basically a coin flip on the right answer.

To be specific, Peterson said that while the distribution is 60/40 over the total population, the most violent people are pretty much invariably men

Yeah I agree with perceived likelihood but people used it to write off possibilities

Sometimes things are complex

Because that slight proclivity results in a larger difference at the extremes basicslly

Likelihood seems to mostly be determined based on what people want to be true

In general that is

The 'likelyhood' that people would conspire seems to be pretty high given that humans are social animals.

See that is how I think @Malt_Hitman

It's odd to say otherwise but conspire needs to be defined

Working together in secret

Happens in every company

I thought it was that while women commit more acts of physical violence. Males tend to cause more serious physical injuries when they do commit those acts assuming no weapon in play (which then applies to both) and that these acts are usually reciprocal

That makes sense too @Misomania

that includes throwing stuff at people as well, such as bowls to the head

And if they are saying words can be violence then

Look out ladies

so while women lash out more often, those males repress and lash out more severely essentially

Men are, in general, stronger due to biology and have more muscle mass and testosterone.

Right

And social grooming to a lesser extent

Lesser effect rather

weapons don't care about muscle tone though. and a glass bowl thrown at one's head is still a weapon (and was used in an example I saw)

But I brought up that example to challenge the idea that 'likely' is somehow the same as guarenteed.

Weapons don't care. A weapon can help someone do more but you're still limited by who is using the weapon.

It's just that when I hear people use the phrase conspiracy theory, or use occams razor, they are essentially saying the perceived likely answer is actually proven

And that's fallacy

There's that other saying as well. "When you hear hooves think horses, not zebras." Because horses are more common than zebras it isn't a bad intuition but if you're somewhere where zebras are known to be, or more common than horses are, you should think zebras instead of horses.

r walmarts good or bad

People like to treat the familiar as being all around them, all the time.

Walmarts are absoulely terrible.