My main reason for saying this is this impeachment investigation. it is a desperate move and because of that, i think the house and senate republicans can use it like a club to beat the democrats with, so long as they play it right.

a lot of the democrats driving this process now were in office when it was happening to clinton. they aren't stupid enough to give trump the boost that clinton got. there has to be a deeper strategy here.

maybe they can't control the momentum anymore?

there may be. I'm thinking hours of recorded depositions filled with leading questions. but i'm thinking that even with that house republicans can make a show of what a kangaroo court this is being made into. I'm thinking they will make every reasonable request, for every single possible bit of defense, have most if not all of it refused, and then in the senate hearing it will just be a litany of "your honor we were never given access to X to cross examine and redepose" for several hours. Impeachment is for all intensive purposes a criminal trial, and as such the president gets all the rights a defendant would get. If any Prosecutor had pulled half of what this committee has pulled so far, it would be grounds for a mistrial by itself.

this really isn't like a trial. the analog to the jury, the senators, are all horrifically biased. that wouldn't fly in a court. the judge has a conflict of interest, as he's a member of the party which stands to be destroyed. moreover, the jury are the ones making up the rules as they go.

and there's no such thing as a mistrial here.

there's no such thing as getting off on a technicality, or because your rights weren't respected.

this is a purely political process.

not intended to be fair or unbiased.

that really is not the point. that point is that house republicans, can spen hours breating that drum, live infront of the nation.

and *nobody will care*.

the lines are drawn

oh no they will.

no, they won't. the president's approval rating hasn't budged.

people are already dug in.

because nothing has happened yet

you think senators quibbling over procedure is something happening?

these televised hearings are kabuki theater. nobody cares.

what matters is actual power. the authority to have people removed from office or arrested.

I dont want them to quible over procedure. i want the democrats to do their best smear job like they are planning on. and i want the house republicans to thorw the whole thing back in thier faces but showing just how badly they had to abuse the rules to even get this far. people care about fair play, even when it involves someone they hate.

'throw the whole thing back in their faces' means that you want voters to look at the two groups and make a decision. but that decision has already been made. nobody is changing their minds regardless of what senators say in hearings.

people are already dug in. nobody is changing their minds about anything.

at this point in our republic people have already chosen sides and appeals to reason are over.

we're just at the point where we have to count heads to see which side has more.

that is destinctly untrue. this time last month 40% of people were for impeachment, nows its 52, approbal might not be changing but something else is. you are nowhere near the endgame for this, and thinking its over is the fastes way to lose

mr and mrs american aren't looking at the tv scratching their chins wondering what to make of all this. *they have already decided*

people don't vote on impeachment. they vote on representatives.

and they aren't going to pull the lever for the other team over this.

the vote today was purely partisan.

and what do you think happens in the vote in 2020 if 60 or 70% of people were for impeaching trump because the republicans where counting heads instead of beating democrats over the head wit hthier own misdeads?

jesus christ dude. the republicans have been beating the democrats over the head with their misdeeds for the past three years and the needle hasn't fucking moved.

trump has been at ~43% approval for the past two years.

really, i sawy it fluctuate alot in that time

Over and over again low of 38 high of 46, because they were fighting

statistical noise. these polls tend to have an error of +/-3%

noise, yeah. its not like there was asignificant jump after any events. its not like it tends to react to news cycles.

2020, assuming there isn't some black swan event that results in trump's removal, will be a nailbiter just like 2016.

2020 will be a blow out one way or the other.

from your lips to god's ears

if republicans handle this right, they will demolish the democrats for a decade to come. if they don't, the republican party will lose, pretty much forever

legalizing 30Million people tends to til tehe vote a bit