another thing to remember is that the trial is presided over by the chief justice

we don't know what 'presided' over means in this context, as the chief justice isn't the one making the call. it's still a vote.

this is uncharted territory here.

i assume its like a court, where a judge presides over the proceedings but the jury is the one who convicts

but if its not an easy cheat, all i can assume is that the end goal is not the impeachment trial but the investigation itself.....

maybe it's a variation of the russiagate investigation, where as long as the special council's report was outstanding, the president was hamstrung. he was unable to take many actions because doing so could be seen as obstructing justice.

if he's under investigation by the house, he might feel constrained in his actions for fear of giving the house more ammo to use against him in the senate trial. that's kind of weak though.

since 'high crimes and misdemeanors' is a term left up to the house to decide, they can impeach him for literally anything. doesn't really matter what trump does or does not do in the interim.

yes. but the important thing would be the support for what it is. if they say get him on "not taking the presidential salary" nobody will back the democrats when the republicans refuse to impeach him. they want the russiagate cloud, they want to bring forward a plausible election interference case, and they want to republicans to vote not to impeach him i think. just to they can try and tar the whole party with corruption.

also. once this is all over, i would love a republican lead investigation to the Ukrainian investigation, and the origins of the Russian investigation.

i don't think that'll ever happen, because this is not going to end. even if the democrats don't have some clever strategy to end trump's presidency prematurely, they only need to hold out for a few more years until the demographic changes in the US ensure a permanent democrat presidency and house.

hell, they probably already have a permanent democratic house

looking at most poling? not even close. if things continue on at this rate you are looking at the democrats getting knocked down to a bout 25% of the house and senate.

?
<https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html>

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/618982545715101719/639656409264291882/EIQDYPTXsAEINsJ.png

https://twitter.com/ryangirdusky/status/1189894916639514624

I dont think those polls are anywhere close to accurate. give them like half a year to actually warm up

if i had to guess, Republican super majority in the senate maybe 67-70 seats. and maybe 230-240 seats in the house. along with trump taking 340~ of the electoral college votes.

My main reason for saying this is this impeachment investigation. it is a desperate move and because of that, i think the house and senate republicans can use it like a club to beat the democrats with, so long as they play it right.

a lot of the democrats driving this process now were in office when it was happening to clinton. they aren't stupid enough to give trump the boost that clinton got. there has to be a deeper strategy here.

maybe they can't control the momentum anymore?

there may be. I'm thinking hours of recorded depositions filled with leading questions. but i'm thinking that even with that house republicans can make a show of what a kangaroo court this is being made into. I'm thinking they will make every reasonable request, for every single possible bit of defense, have most if not all of it refused, and then in the senate hearing it will just be a litany of "your honor we were never given access to X to cross examine and redepose" for several hours. Impeachment is for all intensive purposes a criminal trial, and as such the president gets all the rights a defendant would get. If any Prosecutor had pulled half of what this committee has pulled so far, it would be grounds for a mistrial by itself.

this really isn't like a trial. the analog to the jury, the senators, are all horrifically biased. that wouldn't fly in a court. the judge has a conflict of interest, as he's a member of the party which stands to be destroyed. moreover, the jury are the ones making up the rules as they go.

and there's no such thing as a mistrial here.

there's no such thing as getting off on a technicality, or because your rights weren't respected.

this is a purely political process.

not intended to be fair or unbiased.

that really is not the point. that point is that house republicans, can spen hours breating that drum, live infront of the nation.

and *nobody will care*.

the lines are drawn

oh no they will.

no, they won't. the president's approval rating hasn't budged.

people are already dug in.

because nothing has happened yet

you think senators quibbling over procedure is something happening?

these televised hearings are kabuki theater. nobody cares.

what matters is actual power. the authority to have people removed from office or arrested.

I dont want them to quible over procedure. i want the democrats to do their best smear job like they are planning on. and i want the house republicans to thorw the whole thing back in thier faces but showing just how badly they had to abuse the rules to even get this far. people care about fair play, even when it involves someone they hate.

'throw the whole thing back in their faces' means that you want voters to look at the two groups and make a decision. but that decision has already been made. nobody is changing their minds regardless of what senators say in hearings.

people are already dug in. nobody is changing their minds about anything.

at this point in our republic people have already chosen sides and appeals to reason are over.