Message from @allgoodguy

Discord ID: 623670269478961172


2019-09-17 23:51:59 UTC  

SA floods the market with cheap oil to keep us happy because oil is their only economic value.

2019-09-17 23:52:14 UTC  

That's why they recently went into debt.

2019-09-17 23:52:44 UTC  

They have everything to lose and we have everything to gain by leaving the middle east and procuring our own oil

2019-09-17 23:52:51 UTC  

They draw their budgets based on oil being over $100/bbl. When that happened, we out produced them.

2019-09-17 23:53:23 UTC  

SA is flooding the market (well maybe *was* now) because they have a lower lifting cost. It was economic warfare against Iran.

2019-09-17 23:53:51 UTC  

It was against the US and Russia while you're joking.

2019-09-17 23:54:23 UTC  

We are more than capable of doing so, your entire argument of "well you import so prices will affect you" doesnt hold water outside the short term, if we truly were to spool up our industry we would be the oil power of the world.

2019-09-17 23:54:29 UTC  

Sorry, I must not have been clear. We leave the middle east. that's it. pass go and collect the vast reinvestment in domestic prosperity.

2019-09-17 23:54:48 UTC  

Our reserves are meant for us to keep up domestic use AND fight a war at the same time

2019-09-17 23:54:50 UTC  

Look up top producers of oil over the last 20 years. Notice that after the US become the #1 producer that SA flooded the market.

2019-09-17 23:55:37 UTC  

We may see a slight bump in price in the short term but it wont last and we certainly wont be as negstively affected as the UK, we learned our lesson in the 70s we prepare for these kinds of things.

2019-09-17 23:56:25 UTC  

See when it got high enough for us to start doing shale we did shale and we got *good at it*. We went from bore drilling to pad drilling to multipad drilling. We went from seismic to 3D then 4D seismic. The current lifting costs are half what they were when we started.

2019-09-17 23:57:34 UTC  

And because the SuperMajors are not the only players anymore any rise in price makes a whole host of operators economically viable.

2019-09-17 23:59:32 UTC  

Exactly @Jym.. We will survive the whole thing because our economy absorbs these bumps, and when we can make more profit at things, then we expand technologies making them even more efficient. I don't buy the fear of a price increase, because it will transform the economy, and those price spikes, and eventual moderate growth of inflation is what a strong economy exhibit. Part of the problem we have had over the last 30 years is the drive to internationalism has driven prices down, damn the worker.

2019-09-18 00:00:13 UTC  

That by definition is deflationary, and is what drives economies into depression.

2019-09-18 00:01:11 UTC  

We could collapse the entire middle easts economy if we felt like it

2019-09-18 00:01:20 UTC  

Not that they need our help

2019-09-18 00:01:47 UTC  

I'm not so sure we shouldn't, except that is how OBL was so damn effective at recruitment for his Jihadi movement.

2019-09-18 00:02:34 UTC  

I wouldn

2019-09-18 00:02:52 UTC  

Internationalism doesn't really come into this. The high prices earlier in this century created a demand that resulted in a whole technological revolution in this country. That cannot be undone. And so whatever we previously considered the dynamics of the energy industry to be that has now been permanently changed.

2019-09-18 00:02:59 UTC  

I wouldn't advocate for us to militarily get involved over there any more. THAT doesn't make any sense.

2019-09-18 00:03:22 UTC  

It really does. Oil was one of the first international markets.

2019-09-18 00:03:45 UTC  

What about sugar

2019-09-18 00:03:59 UTC  

copper

2019-09-18 00:04:03 UTC  

Slaves

2019-09-18 00:04:14 UTC  

copper was traded all throughout eurasia in the bronze age

2019-09-18 00:04:16 UTC  

Crusades

2019-09-18 00:04:26 UTC  

flint was traded around before then

2019-09-18 00:04:49 UTC  

tbh we should either go all or nothing in the middle east

2019-09-18 00:04:50 UTC  

ok, in the current, post-colonial economies.

2019-09-18 00:04:59 UTC  

i'd prefer nothing

2019-09-18 00:05:07 UTC  

Copper and tin were pretty major in the bronze era because they are rarely co-located.

2019-09-18 00:05:21 UTC  

but if you don't fully invest in essentially colonizing a place you're spending more in the long term

2019-09-18 00:05:49 UTC  

No colonizing has a lot of maintenance costs.

2019-09-18 00:06:04 UTC  

Ask Britain and France.

2019-09-18 00:06:19 UTC  

right but at this point it'd be nation building

2019-09-18 00:06:24 UTC  

And it cost both dearly in military upkeep.

2019-09-18 00:07:02 UTC  

islam is too cancerous to do anything about

2019-09-18 00:07:13 UTC  

i don't think there will ever be peace in the ME

2019-09-18 00:07:17 UTC  

better to contain it

2019-09-18 00:07:22 UTC  

Why do you suppose FDR's main foreign policy was to dismantle Britain's colonial structure?