the above/below is percent above or below 1.0 ratio

that's the y-axis

x-axis is percent Republican

got it

my point is that with just some simple assumptions about human voting patterns I can get a graph to mimic what he plotted

mmm

I could dynamically change the percent of Reps that defect from Trump based on how Republican the precinct is, etc. ... maybe adjust the Dems voting for Trump etc. ... probably get any kind of curve you with just a few tweaks here and there

Again just some simple assumptions about folks voting in that particular county could explain Dr. Shiva's data

@DrSammyD did a big data grab and looked for Dr. Shiva's pattern on a county-by-county basis for every state and didn't see that pattern BUT my point is that a local level, within a county say if you just make some simple assumptions about they way folks vote in that county then you can get some peculiarities that over a larger dataset you would not expect

@meglide https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/index.html

You have to do some min max to figure out how many people didn't vote for the top level candidate

So the diff between the lowest number vote in that party, and the highest is the minimum possible total # of none down ballot votes.

But non-down ballot votes could (and almost certainly do) exceed this number, and they mix/match to come with the numbers they have.

The problem is that aggregating the data at the county level can never show what Shiva says. If the syphon happens at the precinct level, that simply lowers the one dot you have for a county.

You'd have to scrape every precinct.

If all of the counties have this syphon, then every dot just looks like it was shifted down equally.

https://youtu.be/XLJEiC2BPV4

Seriously, Michigan non-down ballot voters are suppressed by a minimum of 50% next to MN, IL, and WI https://bitcadia.github.io/DownBallot/Outputs/CountyDownBallotDiffsByStraightMI.html

Nessel is targeting conservative websites I hear

Suppression sounds boilerplate

well MI allows for voting straight party by filling in just one box, what about the other states?

None, but we're only comparing people who didn't use that

I have no idea, Trump really almost earned my first ever vote this year. /Regrets wouldnt have affected my state but still..I honest to god wanna see Amy Barret with ted cruz vp. Thats what im feelin rn. If shes as impartial as she comes off while still understanding being a human I like her alot.

Dr. Shiva talked about it in his video on just MI precincts so now I'm wondering how he broke the data out

They found the precinct data. probably from michigan

no, I mean what exactly was he plotting

Ask him ? https://vashiva.com/contact/

I doubt you'll see a response but I feel like anyone trying to prove or disprove something should be willing to share applicable data to make the results irrefutable.

He plotted exact numbers of ballots checked as Party Ticket, and exact numbers of non-party ticket per precinct. He then plotted percentage of party ticket republican per precinct on the x axis, and percentage of individual votes for trump on the y axis.

yeah that's what I thought and tried to model ... point is if just a small percentage of Dems broke with straight party vote and voted for Trump you can get something like what he plotted

It's not that the some percentage broke. It's that the percentage that broke increased with how republican the precinct was. But also that it didn't start increasing until the precinct was 25% Republican

yeah I'm not buying his analysis and with a simple model and spreadsheet I can get a curve that does something like what the data shows

x-axis is percentage Republican so to the left is heavy Democrat, if just a small percentage of Democrats break with party and vote Trump then on the left of the graph you get more Trump votes than downline Republican ... then if a fraction of Republican vote party downline but NOT Trump as you move right towards heavier Republican precincts you less Trump votes than downline Republican ... adjust the relative percentages and you can put the break over point anywhere you want

I'm looking at a similar pattern for the right side of his graph in GA

They are comparing the fraction, not the total amount

Right, that's what I did

So it's an increasing fraction of total voters yes?

not sure what you're asking but the point is that the horizontal axis is percent Republican, so as you move left there are more Democrats voting and less Democrats voting as you move right ... what he observed was a downward trend of Trump votes divided by Republican downline votes AND what he said was if say Romney's analysis is correct that some Republicans voted party downline but NOT for Trump that you would have a flat curve under the 1.0 ratio line but what Dr. Shiva failed to account for is that even if a small percentage of Democrats break from straight party and vote Trump then you can get a curve or trend line similar to what he observed

When you say % republican, do you mean % voted party ticket republican, or % registered republicans?

Finally, I'm not buying he claim that the shape of the trend line is evidence of election fraud ... he claims it's evidence of a computer algorithm but I claim it could be just evidence of voter preferences within a particular county

regarding % republican I assume "voted" because I believe that's all the data he had (I assume the ballot data is secret and thus you won't know if the vote cast was registered Republican or not)