Message from @[Lex]
Discord ID: 466021918345265152
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@Pielover19 The NPVIC is concerning. It's important that it doesn't pass in PA.
If the NPVIC is passed, we just need to rig the damn polls.
Because you know they already rigged the popular vote when it was symbolic bullshit
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@everyone Get in Voice Chat. We'll be discussing the SCOTUS pick and other miscellaneous topics
Has he picked yet
@Deleted User 9pm eastern time
Kkkool
Heck off
odds +125 Brett Kavanaugh
+150 Amy Coney Barrett
+250 Thomas Hardiman
+300 patrick wyrick
+450 britt grant
+550 keith blackwell
+600 Tom Fitton
+900 kevin newsom
+1100 mike lee
+1100 amul thapar
+1250 joan larsen
+1500 Ted Cruz
+2500 Rand Paul
+5000 Judge Judy
+10000 Alex Jones
+12500 Donald Trump Junior
+150000 Donald J. Trump
+500000 Barrack Obama
+1000000 Jeb Bush(edited)
👏 👏 👏
So excited to see SCOTUS pick
🍿 🍿 🍿
Who do you guys think it's going to be?
I would love to be a fly on the wall with POTUS kitchen cabinet.
<EASIEST>
1. John Kerry or any other conventional gimmick-less old white male politiician: John Kerry already has the baggage of losing to Bush in 2004, plus the fact that he'd be 77 years old, plus the fact that he isn't very charismatic, plus the fact that he's a white male (at least Hillary had the woman card), plus the fact that his policies are generic and uninspiring. Trump would get as close as possible to winning all 50 states in this scenario (even ones like New York) - maybe only Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island would still go blue.
Sadly, I don't think Kerry or any other candidate has a chance of being nominated unless the Democratic leadership tries to rig it again for some reason.
Kerry would just get the "anyone but Trump vote." Many potential anti-Trump voters would just stay home or vote 3rd Party.
2. Hillary Clinton: lost to Trump in 2016, and in 2020 Trump will have won back much of the conservative NeverTrumper vote, which will at the very least net him all of his 2016 states, plus New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine-At-Large - maybe Colorado, Virginia...in better scenarios, even New Mexico and more.
She would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + "I want a woman vote."
3. Corey Booker / Kirsten Gillibrand / Kamala Harris / conventional politician with a gimmick like being minority or female or both. They're pretty much like Hillary Clinton, except younger and less baggage. They still have the problem of being dependent on corporate money, so the progressive wing of the party would look down on them. Booker is basically a discount Obama, Gillibrand is a discount Hillary (or a slightly better version of Hillary).
^These are the likeliest options right now.
They would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + "I want a woman/minority vote" + a small fraction of moderates/independents. It's likely Trump still wins all his 2016 states, plus New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada.
@Deleted User
4. Bernie Sanders. More difficult than anyone above this list, but still very much beatable because of the fact that he'd be subject to much more scrutiny and criticism this time around, plus the fact that he's be 78/79 in 2020. Realize that there were certain...negative things about him that weren't brought to light in 2016 because his only opponent was Hillary in the Democratic primary, and Hillary didn't want to attack him too hard and risk losing his left-wing supporters in the general election.
Sure, he can win the people who stayed home rather than vote for Hillary, but that can be offset by the people who voted Romney then voted for Hillary who would be more willing to go for Trump than Bernie. It can also be offset by all the people who would be turned off by him being agnostic, by him having his honeymoon in the Soviet Union back in 1988 (millennials don't care so much about his socialist advocacy, but there will still be many older voters in 2020 who would just drop their support once they know of that fact; I also doubt the millionaires and billionaires who were willing to fund Hillary would be willing to fund him), by him not having any job other than being a politician, etc.
Also, it's possible he won't even be alive or in enough of a physically energetic state to run a Presidential campaign, much less be the President.
He would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + some fraction of the "I voted Trump but prefer Bernie" vote plus some fraction of "I stayed home because it wasn't Bernie on the ballot in 2016" vote - MINUS the "I voted Romney but will go for Hillary vote" MINUS the "I'm a moderate/independent who will vote for Trump against a socialist" vote. It's possible Trump still wins all his 2016 states. I don't think Sanders will pick off enough. I think Sanders has even less of a chance in Hillary 2016 states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, than Gillibrand/Booker/Harris because of his non-capitalistic policies. He'd also have much less of a chance in Florida and Ohio.
5. Joe Biden: He can potentially win back the white working class like Bernie, but doesn't have the baggage of being an agnostic socialist who spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union. However, he does have the baggage of being associated with Obama, which many of the disenfranchised white working class still view in a negative light given how his 2nd term transpired. He also has a bit of a scandal regarding groping children and women.
So, he'd still be pretty easy to beat, unless the economy is in a recession. Like Sanders, he could also be dead of old age or too old to run a viable campaign.
He would get the "anyone but Trump vote" and a better fraction of the "moderate/independent" vote and a fraction of the "I hated Hillary so I stayed home" vote. He could win if conditions in 2020 were severe, but if the economy is good and Trump managed to finish off accomplishments like North Korea, The Wall, etc - Trump still wins all his 2016 states at the very least, plus New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota. Biden would have a better chance than Sanders of keeping states like Virginia and Colorado.
6. Gavin Newsome. All the positives that Biden has, with none of the baggage that Biden or Sanders have. He's also 22 years younger than Trump. Attractive young white male.
Now, he still could be painted as an out of touch Californian elite, but compared to the others, he has a better chance. The only downside among the Democratic base is that he's a white male, but I'm sure he could make overtures by paying lip service to their causes and picking a minority/female VP candidate. However, that could hurt his chances further.
he has a better chance of being nominated than Biden or Sanders because of his age, but he'll have only been governor of California for 1 year by 2020.
I would still bet on Trump even if it was Newsom though, unless things are drastically different in 2020. Newsom would just perform better than all the others.
he would get the "anyone but Trump" vote and a larger portion of "moderates/independents" and a larger portion of "I stayed home in 2016 because of Hillary"
In all of these scenarios, if the conditions in 2020 are good, all groups that the Democrats could win could still be offset by Trump retaining all of his 2016 support, plus the NeverTrump vote, plus a large portion of the Gary Johnson libertarian vote, plus a large portion of moderates/independents who are satisfied that he isn't the doom they were told he was, plus potential right wing Generation Z voters.
<HARDEST>
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John Kerry (former Senator from Massachusetts, former Secretary of State, former Presidential candidate against George W. Bush in 2004)
Hillary Clinton (former first lady, secretary of state, senator from New York)
Corey Booker (Senator from New Jersey), Gillibrand (Senator from New York), Kamala Harris (Senator from California)
Bernie Sanders (Senator from Vermont)
Joe Biden (former Vice President, former Senator from Delaware)
Gavin Newsom (currently running for Governor of California)
What’s the list for ?
@Ella I wrote it yesterday for someone else. I copied and pasted it so @nig nog could read it
Gotchaa
I used to have to use microfiche. I'm that old